Hyperinflation is making Gold Soar!
(And silver's going up even more!)
Silver Stock Report
by Jason Hommel, April 5, 2008
The results of the tests in life are not merely whether you get an A, B or C in school. In life, the tests will have far more significant consequences, and may determine if you become wealthy enough to effectively help others, or go bankrupt and have to start all over again, or worse.
Today, everyone in the world who has any money or wealth is being tested on their own knowledge of the nature and value of paper money, and on how much paper money there might be; and on the nature and value of silver and gold as money, and on how much silver and gold there might be.
We are being tested on things that nobody teaches, and on things that are, frankly, impossible to know, although estimates exist, and I do try to share some of the professionally compiled estimates on those subjects.
Here's a bit of the curriculum on money:
Today, I'd like to talk a little bit about the facts of hyperinflation. Everyone will be tested on this in this market, so pay attention, because these facts are not widely taught. If you understand this, you can get a serious advantage over other people.
Back in 2003, I wrote:
I identified a monumental sea change situation that changed in 2001. In 2001, an amazing thing happened. Hyperinflation started in the U.S., and has continued ever since, and gotten worse.
In 2001, the purchasing power of money in the banks (the gold value) peaked, and then started going down faster than the rate of increase of new dollars. Whereas before 2001, both the number and the value of dollars increased at the same time.
June 1998: M3 5,711 billion / gold price $296/oz. =
19.3 (billion oz. gold value)
Money value peaked in 2001, with M3 being worth 28.2 billion ounces of gold. That's a fact that "paper money value" peaked in terms of the amount of gold it could theoretically buy.
But hey, you know what? Experts claim there are only about 5 billion ounces of gold ever mined in the history of humanity! This shows that there are probably a few too many fraudulent dollars out there.
Today, the value of M3 is still bloated and terribly over valued, and M3 is still increasing in number, while shrinking in value.
Nowandfutures shows that M3 is $14 trillion. What a vast increase over $7.6 trillion in 2001! Nearly double in 7 years!
The gold price today is $912/oz.
So, for April, 2008: M3 14,000 billion / gold price $912/oz. = 15.3 (billion oz. gold value)!
That's 15.3 billion oz. of gold, in theory, that all U.S. money in the banks can buy.
U.S. dollars (Fed notes) are very over valued still, and going down in value, still!
And hyperinflation continues, as inflation of the money supply is now 19%!
INFLATION IS 19.5%! (Inflation of the money supply!)
What's inflation? The U.S. is diluting the value of the dollar by making too many.
It's like adding an extra can of water to the juice.
It's like adding a bunch of cold water to the hot bath.
It's like trying to make Jello with too much water.
The inflation rate is the amount of extra dollars that they are adding each year, that are destroying the value of the dollar.
But since 2001, the value of the dollar is being destroyed FASTER than the inflation rate--that's the hyperinflation that started in 2001.
You are being tested on your knowledge of that, right now.
To pass the test, you need to own physical silver or physical gold.
If you fail the test, you are happy to own paper money, paper bonds, or paper silver and gold certificates.
The Consumer Price Index, (CPI) inflation rate is said to be 4%.
The CPI is under counting, as it uses hedonic adjustments, and excludes "unimportant" things like gold, silver, food, housing, and energy (what else is there?!), and the true inflation rate must be higher. Experts seem to suggest that the true consumer inflation rate is between 8-12%, but a housewife who pays attention to grocery prices might know more. This is another unknowable part we all get tested on.
Now, the difference between what bonds pay you (2-4%?), and what
inflation takes from you (12-19-22%?), is the cost of owning bonds, and
while I don't know exact numbers, as nobody can, what I do know, and I
guarantee you, is that this is a negative number. What the number
is, who knows. Let's say it's negative 15% or so. That's the
price you pay, the money you lose each year, for owning bonds, now days,
and this has been the penalty since about 2001.
Why is there hyperinflation? Because there is "never enough money" to avoid bankruptcy of the major institutions, because they are printing money for the war in Iraq, and for too much government. The money printers are fearing deflation because other people might be taking money out of the banks (which is said to be deflationary) to hold it in the mattress, spend it overseas, or use it to buy silver and gold. But that's not deflation, it's the result of hyperinflation.
Hyperinflation makes people take their money out of the banks, and spend it as fast as possible.
The point is that there is no monetary incentive for people to hold cash or bonds right now; as they are losing money because of the high money creation rate, and the gold rate increases.
Another main point that follows is that gold will continue to go up as long as current conditions exist, as they have, since 2001. Since 2001, gold has been going up by about 22% per year. That's from $250 to a high of $1000, over 7 years.
Now then. Where are the economic incentives today when owning gold pays 22% per year, and owning bonds costs 15% per year?
The incentive is to sell bonds and buy gold. The world economic conditions are paying people to move into gold.
There is no reason to think that anything will change, until it does.
The required change is for bonds to pay more than the annual gold value increases.
Until bonds pay more than owning gold, then gold will continue to rise.
How far will this process be likely to go? How long? Until when?
Until bonds pay more than owning gold, then gold will continue to
The size of the U.S. Bond market might be about $25 trillion, and the
world bond market might be $50 trillion.
Right now, an extremely tiny portion of the $50 trillion market is trying to buy into the $5 trillion market.
I think about $0.115 trillion is going into gold annually right about
now. (4000 tonnes x $900/oz.)
This might be another clue as to how long the gold market will go, but is no guarantee:
Jan. 1980: M3 1,822 billion / gold price $850/oz. = 2.1 (billion oz. gold value)
Gold will go up at least until the gold value of paper money is 2 billion gold ounces, or significantly less, as that was the condition in 1980, and it should probably continue further than that. After all, the U.S. government does not have 2 billion ounces of gold; it only has 0.261 billion ounces of gold.
Be prepared for gold prices to continue to rise
about 22% per year or more, at least until bond interest payments rise to
over 22% per year, or whatever the gold price increases might be at the
As always, silver trumps gold, in my opinion, since so much silver has been consumed in jewelry and flatware and industry. If the silver to gold ratio returns to the historic 15:1, we will make 3 times as much money in silver, than in gold. But due to the rarity of silver, because it has been used up, because it is hard to find, and because only about 8 times as much silver is mined than gold each year, silver will probably exceed the value of the historic 15:1.
To get an A+ on one of the tests of life today is real simple. You don't need to know any of what I just said, but it might help. All you need to do is buy silver.
A Brief Guide to Buying Silver: