Silver Stocks Comparative Valuations
Silver
Stocks--Comparative Valuations
Report # 56
Friday, Feb 25th, 2005
A day's wage used to be a silver dime,
a silver quarter, or maybe a
silver dollar. 2000 years ago in Rome, a silver denarius was a
day's wage, and that coin was about the size of a silver dime,
too. Even as recent as 100 years ago, a silver dime was a day's
wage. A silver dime
today costs about 50 cents, at $7.20/oz. for silver. If the world
returns to using silver as money, that silver dime might be worth about
$150 or more--which is what a day's wage is in U.S. dollars
today. Thus, a $5000 investment in silver bullion today may be
worth about $1.5 million, or more, in the future.
However, silver is more rare today
that it has ever been. For over 50 years, silver has been
consumed in electronics, because silver is the greatest conductor of
electricity known to man. We still consume more than we
produce. About 900
million oz. of silver are consumed annually, and just under 600 million
ounces mined annually. Thus, there is is seven times as much
refined gold as silver... Buy real silver, it is scarce, real
wealth, and cannot go to zero value, and I expect silver may rise in
price nearly 300 fold, or more due to the insatiable industrial demand
and the scarcity. With that point of view, I began researching
and investing in silver stocks, and this report is the fruit of my
efforts, and the collective wisdom of the feedback I get from my
readers.
This week's report lists the market capitalizations for about 76 silver stocks. There are about 27 silver stocks that list reserves,
resources (and exploration potential) which I
calculate by using my "ounce in the ground" formula. There are about 49
explorers. There are about 30
additional "silver" stocks with incomplete
information. This report goes
out now to over 13,600 investors each week. Additions & Changes
from
last week are in bold.
Quick links to other areas in this report (Index of this report): Table of Contents:
[Summary list of Silver stocks]
[My Methodology]
[Weekly Commentary]
[My Conference Schedule]
[General Commentary on Silver]
[WHERE and HOW to BUY SILVER BULLION]
[The money chart]
[Disclaimers, Warnings, and Advice]
[Company profiles]
[Company profiles with the most resources, and least cost]
[Profiles of Explorers]
[Links]
[Silver Stocks I own]
[Archive of about 40 of my past essays]
[Archive of past Silver Stock Reports]
Kitco
reports silver at $7.26/oz. as of Friday, 3PM West Coast, US, which
was used to calculate the following
figures. The CAN $ / US $ conversion factor is
.8077. I will use .81 for ease. At today's prices, it takes 60 oz. of silver to buy 1 oz. of gold.
How to read the table below: It starts on the left with:
The Stock Symbol that works at Yahoo! Finance (Company name) / The
number that follows the company name, below, represents the company's
resources, divided by the market cap as denominated in silver; thus, it
is the number of silver oz.
"in ground" that you gain title to when you trade away one ounce of
silver to buy 1 oz. of silver's worth of stock. The number is just one potential valuation method, in this case, an
expression of leverage that silver stocks can give you, the higher the
number, the better. / Next, I list the valuation price change
since last week (and stock dilution, and resource changes,
if any) as "up" or "down" or "even". / Finally, there are additional comments (EXPT is "exploration potential")
Company names in bold have summaries below with updated information since the last report. Click on the name to see the summary below.
This first list are the companies with information about
reserves/resources/exploration
potential. The list is ordered/ranked based on the resource
picture. The most expensive (with the fewest silver resources
given their market cap) are listed first. Many of the bigger
market cap companies, such as CDE, ABX, HL, BHP, Penoles, etc., are not
listed here, because they are simply too expensive, based on their
market capitalizations and resource ratio.
- FSR.TO FSLVF.PK (FIRST SILVER) 4.0 up --producer, (not profitable '03 3rd
q.) unhedged, owns bullion
- GRS GAM.TO (GAMMON LAKE)
4.1 up --producer, owns 26%
of
Mexgold
- * TM.V TUMIF.OB (TUMI RSCS)
4.4 up -- (24 EXPT) recent bonanza grade silver
discovery
- WTZ WTC.TO (WESTERN SILVER) 4.6 even -- (14 EXPT) large mine development cost.
copper & zinc bonus
- MFN MFL.TO (MINEFINDERS) 4.9 up --significant gold bonus, $35 mil cash
on hand.
- PAAS (PAN AMERICAN SILVER) 5.2 up --large market cap, cash rich, producer.
- IAU.TO ITDXF.PK
(INTREPID MINRLS) 7.4 up --exploring in Mexico & Argentina.
- FAN.TO FRLLF.PK (FARALLON RSCS) 7.6 down --(13 EXPT) low grades, silver 1/3;
also gold & zinc bonus.
- * CFTN.PK (CLIFTON MINING) 7.7 up -- (186 EXPT) (order their colloidal
silver now online 10% off)
- ORM.V OREXF.PK (OREMEX RES) 8.3 down (35 EXPT) --Discovery! 20 oz. of silver/T over 292 feet!
- *
PLE.V (PLEXMAR RES
INC) 10.1 up --has options on 2 new projects
- SSRI SSO.V (SILVER STANDARD)
10.2 down --large
company, 20+ properties, owns silver
bullion
- CZN.TO CZICF.PK (CDN ZINC)
10.7 down --large zinc bonus, high grades, low start
up
costs, great
EXPT
- FR.V FMJRF.PK
(FIRST MAJESTIC) 11.6 up (39 EXPT) --producer in Mexico.
- * IMR.V
IMXPF.OB (IMA
EXPL) 12.6 up --(47 EXPT) in Argentina 83 oz. of silver/T over 35 meters!
- SHSH.PK (SHOSHONE SILVER)
14.1 up --leased properties; need payments; in Coeur
d'Alene
- * SVL.V STVZF.PK (SILVERCREST) 15.0 up --Silver in Central America, 11.5 oz. of silver/T over 313 feet
- * YZC.V (Yukon Zinc)
16.0 down --huge zinc bonus
60%
zinc, 25% silver.
- RDV.TO RDFVF.PK (REDCORP VEN)
17.5 up --60% gold bonus
- * ABI.V ABMBF.PK (ABCOURT MINES) 19.4 up --large zinc bonus, + existing infrastructure
- GGC.V GGCRF.PK (GENCO RECS)
20.3 even --producer in
Mex. Plans to expand and acquire
- HDA.V HUSIF.PK (HULDRA SILVER) 21.0 up --very tiny, zinc bonus, low start up costs.
- CHD.V CHDSF.PK (CHARIOT RSCS) 22.0 up --explorer, with inferred
resources
- * CSG.TO CSGLF.PK (CAPSTONE GOLD) 22.7 down (84 EXPT) (In Mexico, resources are historical)
- * SRLM.PK (STERLING
MINING) 23.2 down --(55 EXPT) acquired the Sunshine
in Coeur
d'Alene
- *
MGN (MINES
MGMT)
26.7 up --60% copper bonus (low grades), start up
cost ~ $250
mil
- * ASM.V ASGMF.PK (AVINO SILVER) 30.4 down -- to own 100% of the Avino mine
* = I own shares
Next list: Exploration companies or producers with limited information
on resources. This list is in order (roughly) by market cap, the
highest market cap companies are listed first.
- MGR.V MGRSF.PK (MEXGOLD RSCS) -- bonanza grade
discovery on Jan 13th, 2004
- CDY CDU.V (CARDERO RSCS) --silver, copper, & iron explorer, 19 properties
- AOT.V ASOLF.PK
(ASCOT RSCS) -- owns percentage of Cardero,
CDU.V
-
* OTMN.PK (O.T. MINING) very
large exploration potential; recently discovered copper porphyry 1200 ft. long.
- MCAJF.PK
(MACMIN LTD) --In Australia
-
MAI.V MNEAF.OB
(MINERA ANDES) (gold bonus)
- TVI.TO TVIPF.PK
(TVI PACIFIC) --A PRODUCER of a dore silver bar 96% silver, 4%
gold
- * EDR.V
EDRGF.PK (ENDEAVOUR SILVER) A PRODUCER in Mexico
- * MMGG.OB
(METALLINE MINE) --zinc/silver (historic high grade silver) (low cost
revolutionary oxide zinc process)
- ECU.V ECUXF.PK
(ECU SILVER
MINI) --A PRODUCER 50% gold bonus
- SPM.V
SMNPF.PK (SCORPIO
MINING)
This next list has silver exploration companies with market caps under about $30 million
(Market cap = total number of shares
fully diluted, times the share price. It's what the company is
"worth" in the market place, given the stock price, and is one of the
important numbers I calculate each week in these lists.)
-
CAUCF.PK
(CALEDON RES)
- * CBE.V CBEFF.PK (CABO MINING)
--Historic Silver and Cobalt district
-
MAG.V MSLRF.PK
(MAG SILVER)
-
EXN.V EXLLF.PK
(EXCELLON RSCS)
-
* KRE.V KREKF.PK (KENRICH ESKAY) --Near Eskay Creek
-
BCM.V BCEKF.PK
(BEAR CRK MINING)
-
EGD.V EGDMF.PK
(ENERGOLD MINING)
This next list has silver exploration companies with market caps under about $20 million
- SDR.V SDURF.PK
(STROUD RSCS) (partners with Amerix) --in Mexico
- * APM.V
(Amerix Precious Metals Corp) (partners with Stroud) --in Mexico
- EPZ.V ESPZF.PK
(ESPERANZA SILVR)
- QTA.V QURAF.PK (QUATERRA RES)
- SSV.V (SOUTHERN SILVER EXPLORATION)
- PXI.V
PNXPF.PK (Planet Exploration Inc.)
-
ROK.V ROCAF.PK
(ROCA MINES INC) --Near Eskay Creek
-
*KG.V KDKGF.PK (KLONDIKE
GOLD)
-
NJMC.OB (NEW
JERSEY MIN)
- SRY.V (STINGRAY
RSCS)
This next list has silver exploration companies with market caps under about $10 million dollars:
- APE.V (Apogee Minerals Ltd.)
- * CMA.V
CRMXF.OB (CREAM MINERALS) --Low grade, large "exploration potential"
-
MMG.V MMEEF.PK
(MCMILLAN GOLD)
- GPR.V GPRLF.PK
(GREAT PANTHER)
- SML.V SMLZF.PK
(STEALTH MNRLS)
- GNG.V
GGTHF.PK (GOLDEN GOLIATH) --Historic silver
district in Mexico
- * PDO.V (PORTAL DE ORO RS) --New Discoveries in Argentina
This next list has silver exploration companies with market caps under about $5 million dollars: (The real "penny stocks" are those with the smallest market caps, not the lowest share price!)
- IPT.V IMPJF.PK (Impact Minerals)
- LEG.V LEGCF.PK
(LATEEGRA RSCS) --Near Eskay Creek
-
TBLC.PK (TIMBERLINE RES) --in Cour d'Alene
- TUO.V TEUTF.PK
(TEUTON RES) --Near Eskay Creek
- * AUN.V
AUNFF.PK (AURCANA CORP)
- ASLM.PK (AMER
SILVER MINI) -- In Cour d'Alene
- PCM.V PAOCF.PK (PAC
COMOX RES)
- BGS.V BLDGF.PK
(BALLAD GLD SLVR)
- * GRG.V (GOLDEN ARROW RESC) IMR.V spin-off. 35
properties
-
MTB.V (Mountain
Boy Minerals Ltd)
- BBR.V BBRRF.PK
(BRETT RES)
- CLZ.V (Canasil Resources Inc)
- LSM.V LASCF.PK
(Langis Silver & Cobalt Mining Co Ltd)
- CBP.V
CPBMF.PK (CONS PAC BAY MIN)
* = I own shares.
There are expanded profiles on each company, way below. But
before I get to that, let me discuss my methodology, and the problems
with it.
See the number above, listed after each company in the first
list? That number represents the number of silver ounces in the
ground that you get when you buy an ounce of silver's worth of
stock. The number treats all reported ounces in the ground as
equal, however, they are NOT EQUAL. Some ounces in the ground are
more certain and others are more speculative. Some are higher
grades, some are lower grades. Some have been well drilled,
others have less drill results. They range from most certain to
least certain such as: "proven & probable reserves," and then,
"measured, indicated, or inferred resources." A reserve has
a feasibility study produced for it. A resource, does not.
Here's the math on how I calculate that one number. First, I get
a market cap by multiplying the fully diluted shares (which bullishly
assumes all options and warrants will be exercised and converted into
outstanding shares) by the share price in U.S. dollars. Next, I
divide that by the silver price, so the market cap is denominated in
terms of silver ounces. Then, I divide the ounces in the ground
by the market cap as denominated in silver. This produces the
single number of how many ounces of silver in the ground you are buying
when you give up one ounce of silver in your hand, for shares of stock,
instead. This way, you can not only compare silver stocks to each
other, you can compare them to silver directly. This also helps
people in other nations, using other currencies, to value these
companies.
This valuation does not include zinc, or copper, or lead, but
it does include gold at a 1:10 ratio of gold:silver. At
goldsheetlinks.com, they add 100% of proven & probable reserves,
but only 70% of measured & indicated resources, and only 50% of
inferred resources. I don't do that. I count them as all
the same.
I believe that the two most important
numbers that a silver mining company can report are the resources in
the ground, and the number of their fully diluted shares. Of course,
there is much more to a mining company than that, but without those
numbers, it is extremely difficult to even start an evaluation.
This report highlights those key numbers, where possible. If you
think those numbers are also important, please email the executives of
the mining companies you own, and ask them to make sure their numbers
are clearly published at their websites.
Problems with my methodology: My methodology assumes that the
more ounces in the ground, is, in theory, best, given that I expect
much higher silver prices. However, unless the price of silver
really moves much higher, my methodology may not be the best one.
If silver does really move up very high in value as compared to today,
then I expect my methodology to be one of the best predictors of rising
stock values, because more ounces in the ground mean more leverage to
rising silver prices. However, the companies with greater
leverage to the upside usually also tend to have greater leverage to
the downside, and thus, tend to be more volitile.
Other factors to consider that the single number produced by my
methodology does not: A resource calculation number does not tell
you the entire picture about a company. The resource calculation number is designed as a
starting place for further research. Other very important
considerations are as follows: How much existing mining
infrastructure is in place? The more the better, so think of it
as a "bonus". How much cash does the comapany have on hand, and
what is their burn rate? What is the management's attitude
towards money, silver, hedging, debt, and dilution? This is why I
list "additional comments" in the company profiles, below.
I don't consider grade to be too important (although I list it when I
can), because I consider the cost to mine to be the more important
consideration. The "cost to mine" is determined in a feasibility
study, which is the last thing produced before trying to raise money
for final construction of a mine. And usually, they cannot even
count silver as a resource unless it is at least somewhat feasable to
mine at today's prices for silver. And this is why I count all
the ounces as the same. If a low grade ore can be mined more
cheaply, and if a higher grade ore costs more to extract, and if it has
to be somewhat economically feasible even at these low silver prices to
be counted, it balances out quite nicely.
My methodology is the natural result of my study of the silver market
and my religious views. To read about my religious views, see my
other web site, bibleprophesy.org
There are two essays near the top of the page that explain why I
believe the entire world will return to using gold and silver as money
again before the end times. See Ezekiel 38. Also, see my essay: Biblical
Guidelines for Managing your Money
See my June 18, 2004
article: I'm
insanely bullish on silver.
To quickly "tab" down to the company you are interested in, note the
symbol. Then hit "control-F" to "FIND" the symbol below.
___________
If I use a word you don't understand and is not listed in the
dictionary at www.m-w.com you can
look up the meaning at http://investorwords.com/
WEEKLY COMMENTARY (All new in this section):
To hear my hour long radio show on the internet from 2-12, click here:
http://archives.warpradio.com/btr/EquityStrategies/021222.MP3
------------------------
I was interviewed by Dave Forest of Kitcocasey.com this week. See the article here: (Text follows below)
What’s Moving the Silver Market?
For
many investors, the silver market is a mysterious realm. While
Bloomberg and Marketwatch devote regular (albeit sparing) coverage to
gold, they seldom even mention silver. On the odd occasion that they
do, it’s only to note how much the price rose or fell, with little
consideration given as to what factors are moving the market.
But
lately there’s been reason to wonder what’s driving silver, given the
metal’s $1 run-up this month. It’s generally held that silver moves
with the gold price, but a look at the charts reveals that this is far
from an exact correlation. Silver gained 15 percent between February 8
and 22, while gold only moved 5 percent. And, at times, the silver
price dropped dramatically while gold was rising, or, conversely, took
off without any apparent up-tick in the gold price.
Noting
this, we thought it would be informative – and potentially profitable –
to seek an expert opinion on what beats the heart of the silver market.
To get such a perspective, we caught up with Jason Hommel, silver
trader and author of the Silver Stock Report, a monthly newsletter for
silver investors. True to form, we found Jason in the middle of selling
silver at the shop of well-known dealer Burt Blumert. He took a few
moments between trades to enlighten us on the things that move the
price of gold’s “little brother”.
As
Jason told us, one of the main factors influencing the silver price is
the small size of the market. Various sources estimate that there are
only a few hundred million ounces of silver actively being traded
around the world (this of course, doesn’t include the large amount of
silver tied up in jewelry and silverware). By contrast, conservative
estimates of global monetary gold supply are in the neighborhood of 2.5
billion ounces, meaning that the silver market is likely at least
10-fold smaller than gold. “Because the silver market is so small,”
Jason noted, “a mere 1 million ounces can move the price. All you need
is one multi-millionaire saying, ‘You know what? I think it’s time to
buy a million ounces.’” How much might this run up the price? “A few
pennies,” he told us.
But
even such a seemingly small gain can be meaningful for a commodity that
has sold for the last 20 years mainly in the 3 to 8 dollar range –
between 50 and 140 times cheaper than gold. Jason turned us over to
Burt, who elaborated on why individual buyers are attracted to silver.
“They say things like, it’s the poor man’s gold,” he said. “You get
more bang for your buck. Silver could go all the way up to $9 very
fast; for gold to gain that much, percentage-wise, it probably won’t
happen as quickly.” In fact, silver going to $9/oz would be the same
percentage gain as gold going to about $550/oz. “We have an old joke,”
Burt concluded, “that in the old days you needed to spend $10,000 in
silver to get a hernia. Today, with the price so low, you can get one
for half price.”
The
potential for those kind of gains, however, is attracting investors
other than just individual silver bugs. There are a considerable number
of silver futures traders who also play a major role in moving the
price. “The futures guys are looking for leverage and they’re making
short-term bets,” Jason told us. “They’re not really buying silver –
around 99 percent of futures contracts never go to delivery. Those
people are basically making a bet on what the price is going to do and
then taking the profits in paper dollars.”
Betting
on the silver price is also a favorite past-time of commercial banks.
Such institutions generally bet against silver, taking short positions
that yield big margins if the silver price stays the same or drops. “If
the commercials increase their shorts significantly,” Jason noted,
“that could explain a downward movement in the price.” But the
commercials can also drive the price up. At some point they have to buy
back silver to close out their short positions, which gives the price a
boost. “Once they realize the price isn’t going any lower,” Jason
added, “they start buying back. It might be their buying that’s pushed
the price back up to the $7 range this month.”
Yes,
I sell silver on occasion. Why? Because I use silver as
money. It is my "store" of money, and I sell it as I need money,
just as you would probably hold onto your dollars, and exchange them
for pesos at the last minute when shopping in Mexico.
Since in the interview, I was speaking off the top of my head, I would like to "do the math" and clarify one point.
First, what is the relative size of the gold and silver markets?
It is estimated that the gold mines produce 2500 tonnes, and that 5000
tonnes is purchased each year. Multiplied by the price of
$430, the dollar numbers are as follows:
5000 tonnes x 32152 oz/tonne x $430/oz. = $69 billion
It is also estimated that the silver mines produce about 600
million oz., while about 900 million oz. is consumed each year. 900
million oz. x $7/oz. = $6.3 billion.
So, the transaction volume of the silver market is about 1/10th that of gold. But what about total bullion available?
It is estimated that 95% of all gold mined in history is still with
us. It is estimated that this is 145,000 tonnes. 95% is
138,000 tonnes x 32152oz/tonne x $430/oz. = $1.9 trillion.
It is also estimated that there is perhaps a maximum of 600 million oz.
of silver left available, since the rest has been consumed by
industry. 600 mil oz. x $7/oz. = $4.2 billion.
Now, 1900 billion / 4.2 billion = 452. Thus, the gold market may really be 452 times bigger than the silver market.
Second,
I was trying to say in the interview that if $1 million dollars was
spent on silver, it would move the price a few pennies. If a
million ounces was purchased, it would probably move the price a few
dimes.
-----------------------------
Google.com has a new
feature. Google Answers! You can ask any question you want,
and researchers will scan the internet, and look for your answer!
You also specify the price you are willing to pay, to help "motivate"
the researchers.
I asked several questions to help me with my "money chart". Please take a look at the updated money chart this week.
I have had a very tough time with one particular question, and so I asked:
What is the...
Total value of all paper money in the entire world?
This is a more difficult question. There may be several different
ways to answer it. For example, US dollars--how do you measure? The
U.S. has several different ways, from "cash and currency in
circulation", to including the value of all checking accounts, to
including savings accounts, to including short term bonds, and money
market accounts. M3 is widely regarded as the best measure for the
U.S. Source: http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h6/Current/
Question: Is there a world wide equivalent of M3? Who would even
keep track? The UN? How would you add in nations like China, who may
not know or release accurate records?
The best answers may well be just wild estimates; guesses. I'll take
that. I'd like the best guess, and I'd like at least three sources.
Any years from 2003 forward are acceptable.
Within a day, I received the answer to my question, as follows:
You are right to wonder about the availability of records in much of
the world. Even the government of many of these nations may not know
the money supply. The only organization able to track such things is
the World Bank. But while they track many pieces of financial data,
they do not track the money supply. However, I have come up with one
way to estimate the world money supply using reliable data. I’m going
to get the money supplies of large economic powers and extrapolate
them into a world money supply based on their combined control of the
world economy.
According to the Federal Reserve, here are the M1, M2, and M3 money
supplies as of January.
M1 - $1.353 trillion
M2 - $6.430 trillion
M3 – $9.467 trillion
Obviously, you’re familiar with these numbers. Unfortunately, the M3
money supply is really impossible to calculate in many countries. The
European Central Bank keeps similar statistics, however. According to
the ECB ( HYPERLINK "http://www.ecb.int/press/pdf/md/md0412.pdf"
http://www.ecb.int/press/pdf/md/md0412.pdf), the M3 money supply for
the European Common Market was 6.529 trillion euros at the end of
December, the latest month for which data is available.
Based on the Feb. 23 spot exchange rate of $1.3211 per euro, the
European M3 money supply is $8.625 trillion in U.S. dollars. European
M2 is quite similar to the American M2. In U.S. dollars, the European
M2 is $7.352 trillion.
This article in the International Herald Tribune ( HYPERLINK
"http://www.iht.com/articles/2005/02/17/bloomberg/sxbriefs.html"
http://www.iht.com/articles/2005/02/17/bloomberg/sxbriefs.html) lists
the Chinese M2 money supply for January at 25.8 trillion yuan, or $3.1
trillion in U.S. currency. I visited the site of the People’s Bank of
China ( HYPERLINK "http://www.pbc.gov.cn/" http://www.pbc.gov.cn/ - a
useful site) and was not able to find the January 2005 number.
However, I checked out the growth of the money supply in 2004 at
HYPERLINK "http://www.pbc.gov.cn/english/diaochatongji/tongjishuju/gofile.asp?file=2004S14.htm"
http://www.pbc.gov.cn/english/diaochatongji/tongjishuju/gofile.asp?file=2004S14.htm
and determined that the newspaper’s figure is probably correct.
According to the Japanese central bank, the M2 money supply plus CD
balances totaled 700.3 trillion yen at the end of January ( HYPERLINK
"http://www.boj.or.jp/en/stat/stat_f.htm"
http://www.boj.or.jp/en/stat/stat_f.htm). Assuming an exchange rate of
104.89 yen per dollar, the Japanese money supply was $6.677 trillion.
Let’s recap:
M2 money supply:
U.S. $6.430 trillion.
EU $7.352 trillion.
China $3.1 trillion.
Japan $6.677 trillion.
While the definitions of the M2 money supply differ from country to
country, they are fairly similar. And that’s going to have to be good
enough, because there is no way to effectively strip out portions of
the numbers provided by the government, at least not without a team of
auditors with extremely high security clearances.
I have no idea about the money supply of Bangladesh or Botswana, but
the economies above represent the four largest economic forces in the
world. We could visit the central banks of a dozen countries to
further refine our estimate, but the four numbers listed above should
be sufficient for our purposes.
According to the CIA Factbook ( HYPERLINK
"http://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook/geos/xx.html#Econ"
http://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook/geos/xx.html#Econ) the
world’s gross domestic product was estimated at $51.48 trillion in
2003. In 2000, the CIA estimate was 2000 was $43.6 trillion. That
makes for an annualized growth rate of 5.69% from 200, through 2003.
Let’s assume a similar growth rate for 2004, and the estimated world
domestic product is $54.4 trillion.
We're going to determine the percentage of the world domestic product
that comes from the four powerhouses above. We'll use that percentage
to extrapolate the money supply for the world. Money supply tends to
be highly correlated with GDP, but the ratio of money supply to GDP
varies greatly from nation to nation, depending on their growth rates
and the composition of their economies.
However, while differences in growth rates and economic maturity of
developing nations will make future predictions very difficult, what
we’re doing is taking a snapshot of the global economy at a particular
moment in time. It's an inexact estimate, but one we can defend
logically and economically.
So, here is the GDP:
* Japan's GDP as of December 2004 was $530.8 trillion yen, or $5.061
trillion in U.S. currency.
* The U.S. GDP in the December quarter was $10.976 trillion.
* The EU reports GDP by quarter
(http://www.ecb.int/stats/prices/accounts/html/index.en.html#data),
with the latest figure available being the September 2004 quarter. The
trailing 12-month GDP for the EU is 7.470 billion euros, or $9.868
trillion in U.S. currency.
* China's GDP was $1.65 trillion for 2004
(http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/english/doc/2005-01/25/content_412097.htm)
I collected the Japan and U.S. GDPs from a proprietary database,
though they must be available on the Internet. I just grabbed them
from my database because it was faster.
The U.S., European Union, China, and Japan combine to generate about
$27.555 trillion in gross domestic product, which represents 50.65% of
the world domestic product.
For estimation purposes, we'll assume they also control 50.65% of the
world money supply. The four regions combine for an M2 money supply of
$23.559 trillion. That translates to a world money supply of $46.513
trillion.
V
Other interesting links:
Economists’ estimates of the growth of the Chinese money supply.
HYPERLINK "http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2005-01/06/content_2421706.htm"
http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2005-01/06/content_2421706.htm
Japan Central Bank page.
HYPERLINK "http://www.boj.or.jp/en/" http://www.boj.or.jp/en/
Financial data for central governments.
http://www.worldbank.org/data/wdi2004/pdfs/Table4_11.pdf
-----------------------------------------
And so, I paid about $400 for several
answers to a few questions that now appear in my "money chart", that is
now significantly updated. Make sure you take at look at the 'money chart'.
------------------------
For several years, I've read every bit of analysis on silver that I can
find. I have never encountered a single silver bearish argument
that I thought was rational. I've read many arguments and reasons
given that attempt to say that silver may not be a good investment, but
as I said, not a single rational reason.
Just over a month ago, there was an article by Joel Bainerman on
01/10/2005, "Is gold really such a good investment?" And at least 3 of
my readers have asked me to comment on his bearish views for the
metals, because they either did not understand Joel, or they wanted to
see if I could refute him. In his article, Joel wonders whether
Euros would have been a better investment than gold. He says that
since he is not an economist, he will not present any graphs.
Well, he should have looked at one, because a graph can answer his
question. To determine whether gold or a currency performed
better over time in the past, you merely need to look at a chart that
compares the currency in terms of gold. There are many such
charts at the very bottom of kitco.com You can see how well gold performed via Euros, via the Yen, and 13 different currencies.
There are basically two kinds of analysis in the world. Analysis
that looks at a chart to determine past price performance (typically
called technical analysis), and analysis that attempts to determine
future price performance--typically called fundamental analysis.
Unfortunately,
the most interesting currency/gold price chart that I know of, does not
appear at kitco. This is the yen/gold chart that extends more than 30
years into the past.
Sharelynx has a yen/gold chart, and it's beautiful. With his permission, here it is:
http://www.sharelynx.com/
http://www.sharelynx.com/ has a lot of great gold charts--charts on everything you could imagine!
Just look at the steep slope of the yen/gold curve in '79-'80! It's like a total wall!
The yen/gold chart shows that the high price for gold, in yen, in 1980,
was over 160,000 yen/oz. Today, the number is 45,624
yen/oz. The point is that the prior yen price was 3.5 times
greater than today.
The U.S. prices are $850 and $430, so the U.S. dollar 1980 price is only 1.97 times greater than today.
Now, another point is that because the U.S. has increased M3
substantially since 1980, we can expect our gold price to rise well
above $850/oz., by about the same factor as the increase in
M3. In my very first article at gold-eagle in June 2000,
I wrote about this. M3 has risen from $1.8 trillion in 1980, to
$9.5 trillion today. That's an increase of 5.2 times. Thus,
if we expect gold to hit it's former high price, the inflation adjusted gold price is now $850 x 5.2 = $4486/oz.
Similarly, but more dramatically, there have also been increases in
Japanese Yen since 1980! I believe they have inflated their own currency
more than we have inflated ours. Their gold price chart shows a
very dramatic and very steep slope for 1980. Furthermore, in
2002, when we were often reading about the end of the FDIC-type
insurance on Japanese bank accounts, we saw the Japanese buying more
and more gold in a gold market that was rising in terms of Yen. I
believe we will see the Japanese Yen gold price rise by a factor of 3.5
times to exceed the prior high, and also by another factor greater than
5.2 times, due to the continued inflation of the Yen. This means
a Yen price of 45,624 yen x 3.5 x 5.2, which would be a price of
830,000 yen/oz. gold, which is a rise 18 times greater than today.
Thus, the Yen is no alternative to dollars. Both will fail. And similarly, the Euro is no better.
-----------------------
My commentary last week on the liberty dollar upset about 3
people. To one such email to me, I responded, but it
bounced. But I think it provides a good look at why our nation
has gone so wrong for so long. So many so-called Christians, it
seems, just can't stand arguing and controversy, and so they avoid
denouncing the wrongs that we should have been denouncing for
generations! So, this man wrote to me, and I responded within his
letter, as follows: (my comments are preceded by "Jason responded:")
Jason,
Christianity has already been dragged through the streets as a legalistic,
judgemental religion - which is what it has become in the 2,000 years since
Christ died - tens of thousands of denominations prove it's faulty
structure.
Jason responded: Really? I thought the tens of thousands of denominations prove it's
solid structure, since it cannot be infiltrated or torn down. As each
group tries to follow Jesus only, it becomes impossible for any one man to
lead the whole group astray.
In fact, the splintering of religious groups is a lot like the free
market place. The free market is made up of many people, each judging
for themselves what to sell at market and what to buy. That is a much
better way of living, than having all buying and selling decisions made
by one top down structure like communism or government planning.
If anything, the splintering of Christianity proves it is of God, and is
a resounding success!
Just another religion among other world religions. I consider
myself a passionate follower of Jesus, but have disassociated myself with
the label "Christian" for the very reason that today people run away from
Christianity, rather than flock to it as when Jesus walked on this earth.
As a follower of Jesus I was hoping I could see less self-righteousness "I'm
right, you're wrong" in your responses. It's a real turn off to people who
are sincere in what they are doing, and especially to people who already
have written off Christianity.
You say: "I'm troubled on whether he will even be saved. I fear he is one
of those men who thinks they will be saved, but to whom Jesus will say, "I
never knew you", as he did in Matthew 7 and Matthew 25."
WOW! I am absolutely floored. You are TROUBLED? You don't even know him,
let alone care for him.
Jason responded: Keep your false accusations to yourself. You will be held accountable
to God for what you say. How can you judge my heart? Are you even
qualified to really know whether I care for sinners? What is my
ministry, if you even know? I preach to all sinners who use Federal
Reserve Notes (as do I).
If you did care for him, you would not publicly
make him look like a thief and a liar, the way the pharisee's did to the
sinners of their time.
Jason responded: Really? Is that your standard or the Bibles? And why does the Bible
say to rebuke a man publicly if you think it is wrong?
1 Timothy 5:20 Them that sin rebuke before all, that others also may fear.
Not only does the Bible tell us to rebuke people publicly, but it even
gives the reason: "that others also may fear"!
Not only that, but the men from libertydollar.org ASKED ME to take it
public! What right do you have to tell both of us to keep the
discussion private????
You FEAR he is one of those men who won't be saved?
Jason, just listen to yourself! Luke 18:11-14 comes to my mind when I read
crap like that coming from other "Christians".
Jason responded: As busy as I am I always take the time to listen to see whether or not
I'm being chastened by the Lord. After all, when busy, it can be easy
to forget the laws of God, so I looked up Luke 18. Sir, may I suggest
that you have put the wrong person in the role of the self-justifying
Pharisee? I'm the one who wrote:
Yes, I do have "in my wallet/bag", and in my house, diverse weights; a
just and an unjust. I have silver and paper Federal Reserve Notes. But
at least I'm aware of my guilt on a daily basis, which allows me the
ability to pray for forgiveness and to try to repent as I offer people
the just weight as often as I can. I expect that the day will come, in
my lifetime, that I will never have to have an unjust weight and
measure, not in my wallet and not in my house. That will be a glorious
day that I eagerly look forward to.
Doesn't that show that I'm like the sinner who said in Luke:
13"But the tax collector, standing
some distance away, was
even unwilling to lift up his eyes to heaven, but was
beating his breast, saying, 'God, be merciful to me, the sinner!'
I never once claimed that I'm not a sinner, and that all my actions are
pure and justified.
On the contrary, that is the entire tone of my opponent, who said that
their money was not as sinful as the Federal Reserve money. Their
attitude was the exact attitude of the Pharisees who said in Luke:
11"The Pharisee stood
and was praying this to himself: 'God, I thank You that I am not like
other people: swindlers, unjust, adulterers, or even like this tax
collector.
How do you think all the
sincere, God following, hard working, under-priviledged Christians feel
after reading that you rent and have no mortgage, and have payed off your
car? Kind of gives them a lump in their throat, wondering if they are living
in sin by having a car loan.
Jason responded: How do I think they will feel? I hope they are convinced of their sins,
and that they will feel guilty!
Because they ARE living in sin by having a car loan! And people need
this to be pointed out to them if they are to avoid the trap of debt,
and bad consequences of such sins! I've written entire articles
explaining the Bible's stance on usury, you can look it up at
silverstockreport.com
Freedom from Usury - 23 Jan 2004
<http://news.silverseek.com/GoldIsMoney/1074867753.php>
Usury Enslaves - 19 Jan 2004
<http://www.silverstockreport.com/essays/Usury_Enslaves.html>
The Bible says that usurers are extortioners, and that the borrower is
the servant to the lender. It also says we ought not to sell ourselves
into slavery, since we have been set free by Jesus. Now, if Jesus sets
us free, and if we indebt ourselves, then we have made a mockery of, and
spit upon, what he has done for us, and yes, we have turned our back on
Jesus if we are debtors!
But I do not say that I'm righteous for having paid in full! That's
just to be expected, I think. It's not lack of sinning that makes one
righteous, it's the repentant heart, the willingness to turn away from
sin, and the acceptance of the death of Jesus in our place, and the
faith that his resurrection is proof that we, too, can be resurrected if
we have faith and a testimony. My righteous living is just a part of my
testimony--that I actually care about what the Bible says!
And then you charge people to view your portfolio activity. Why charge?
Jason responded: The Bible is clear on this, too:
1Co 9:7 Who goeth a warfare any time at his own charges? who planteth a
vineyard, and eateth not of the fruit thereof? or who feedeth a flock,
and eateth not of the milk of the flock?
1Co 9:8 Say I these things as a man? or saith not the law the same also?
1Co 9:9 For it is written in the law of Moses, Thou shalt not muzzle the
mouth of the ox that treadeth out the corn. Doth God take care for oxen?
1Co 9:10 Or saith he it altogether for our sakes? For our sakes, no
doubt, this is written: that he that ploweth should plow in hope; and
that he that thresheth in hope should be partaker of his hope.
1Co 9:11 If we have sown unto you spiritual things, is it a great thing
if we shall reap your carnal things?
1Co 9:12 If others be partakers of this power over you, are not we
rather? Nevertheless we have not used this power; but suffer all things,
lest we should hinder the gospel of Christ.
1Co 9:13 Do ye not know that they which minister about holy things live
of the things of the temple? and they which wait at the altar are
partakers with the altar?
1Co 9:14 Even so hath the Lord ordained that they which preach the
gospel should live of the gospel.
If
your service is unvieling a corrupt system, don't you think God will provide
the means for you to keep it going without looking for handouts?
Jason responded: And, he has. I trade my services, and I receive
compensation in numerous ways.
We reap what we sow. What do you sow?
-----------------------------
I truly believe that God is helping to raise up this ministry to be
able to reach more and more, and to preach, what I feel, is the most
important message to this generation of people: To repent of
debt, usury, fraud, and unjust weights and measures. I feel these
are the greatest sins that exist in our day.
-----------------------------
I will be happy to send...
a 100 oz. SILVER BAR...
To whomever sends me the best essay!
Topic: Silver & Endeavour Silver
Limit: 800 word MINIMUM to 1500 words, MAXIMUM
Deadline: One Week: Friday, 7 PM, Pacific time, on
March 4th, 2005. (Use next Friday's closing price in the
article.)
Style: Somewhat like my past essays on companies, such as found here:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/research/hommelndx.html
Expatriate Resources: Silver-Zinc Penny Stock - 09 September 2004
Nevada Pacific Gold - 23 June 2004
Market Perspective & Cabo Mining - 12 February 2004
Sterling Mining - 29 December 2003
Canadian Zinc--Silver Potential - 23 October 2003
Content and organizational
layout: First, introduce the topic with a few paragraphs on "why
silver". Then, introduce the company by covering the share
structure (warrants, etc.) & market cap
(based on next Friday's close). Next, cover the company story,
plans, management,
and developments. You must focus on fundamentals only. No
technical analysis (no curves or lines on charts). It is highly
recommended that you
review the web site, the recent news, the financials, and then call the
company if you have any questions, and/or to get the latest "company
pitch". Also, include
any concerns investors may have in the company. Be persuasive,
show enthusiasm and passion, but not exaggeration. Either
positive or negative is ok. Get the reader interested enough to
keep reading. Don't say "buy" or "sell", and
don't issue any price targets. Please
spell-check and grammar-check your writing, and read it out loud to
someone else before sending it.
Finally, include the company contact information, and then your disclaimer at the end.
SEC (Securities and Exchange Commission) Disclaimer Rules: (No lying & no fraud!) You MUST include
whether or not you own shares in the company featured, and whether or
not you have been paid by the company, or work for the
company. If your immediate nuclear family members or
household own shares, or work for the company, that counts, and you
need to disclose that, as well.
Additional Rule: You must agree to not sell any stock in the
company featured for one week following release and publication of the
article.
Send your name and address (so I know where to send the silver bar),
and whether you would like your name, and/or email address to be
attached to the article. (Honestly, getting your name out there
as an analyst who is interested in silver companies at this time may be
worth far more than the silver bar--but in this industry, I understand
if you would rather remain anonymous, as there is safety in that, too.)
All submissions become the property of myself, Jason Hommel, so that I can send
it out in my name as either the author, or co-editor (depending on your preference), and I have the
right to edit, change, add to, or delete from any essay, or even
combine elements of several essays (even if there is only one winner).
Send plain text, a word file, or html, to: j@silverstockreport.com
Today, I received 18 essays on Silver & IMA.
---------------------------
Silver and IMA Exploration
by Jack Myers and Jason Hommel
More and more people are becoming
aware of the growing importance of silver as an investment
vehicle. The fundamentals for the shiny metal are excellent and
can only get better. The key? Supply and demand.
Annual mine supply is just under 600 million ounces while annual demand
is almost 900 million ounces, and almost all of that demand is from
industry at 40%, jewelry at 30%, or photography at 25% of annual
demand. Investment demand is less than 5% of annual demand, and
that is poised to change due to the growing awareness of the silver
shortage. Why is silver in short supply?
Silver is the greatest conductor of
electricity known to man, and so it has been used in virtually every
electrical device ever created. Since the end of World War II,
the United States consumed about 7/10ths of an ounce of silver per
person. Most of the silver ever produced in human history has
been consumed, and so, now above ground silver is more rare than gold.
Of course, in a world increasingly
awash in devalued paper currencies and debt, silver’s most important
use of all may be its historic role as real money. When the train
inevitably starts to come off the troubled economic track, silver will
once again serve as a tried-and-true monetary refuge. Ultimately,
silver is a proven store of value.
However, despite its many strategic
uses, silver incredibly finds itself in a growing supply deficit.
That’s because once-enormous above-ground stockpiles have been drawn
down to dangerously low levels. More silver has been used than
produced in the last sixteen (now going on seventeen) years!
Sixty years ago, during the bygone era of silver coinage, billions of
ounces of Ag were kept in storage. Today these immense stores are
nearly gone. For the first time in memory the U.S. Mint is buying
silver in the open marketplace to produce its yearly supply of Silver
Eagle coins. Today’s spot price is $7.26. During 1979-1980,
the oil baron Hunt Brothers and their Middle-eastern friends conspired
to corner the world’s lucrative silver market. They nearly
succeeded, driving the spot price to $50 in the process. Today's
inflation-adjusted price of the former peak would be well north of $150
to $250/oz. The difference today is that above-ground supplies
have gotten much smaller, and fewer mines are producing silver as their
primary metal. China is consuming all commodities — silver
included — at a voracious rate, and the global financial system is
drowning in an ocean of paper. It’s not question of whether the
silver price is going to explode, but when.
Many silver stocks in exploration
companies stand to explode in price to an even greater degree due to
the leverage they offer the silver investor. Exploration
companies also can explode in price as they create wealth through the
process of discovery. IMA Exploration is one company that
deserves a closer look.
Mining people are continually on the
lookout for the next “elephant” — the colloquial term for a
company-making mineral deposit of gargantuan proportions. The
overwhelming majority of outfits never find such an increasingly
elusive prize. However, one company . . . IMA Exploration
(IMR-TSX.V, IMXPF-OTC.BB), recently bagged a certifiable silver
“elephant” in the Patagonia region of Argentina. At a whopping
268 million indicated ounces of silver and still growing, the question
remains, just how big of an ore body has IMA discovered?
To date, the raw numbers are truly
impressive. And with nearly every turn of the drill, IMA is
adding more metal to its already stunning totals. IMA’s “Navidad”
property is vast, its geology rich and complex. Multiple styles
of mineralization occur along a several-kilometer trend. There’s
copper, lead, and silver — so, so much silver. Bulk, lower-grade
tonnage interspersed with dazzling intercepts of bonanza-grade
mineralization.
Some are calling Navidad the hottest
new silver deposit anywhere on the planet. So far, Navidad has
lived up to this exalted billing.
Highlights include:
-- 80.8 million tons at 103 g/t silver and 1.45% lead using a 50 g/t silver equivalent cut-off.
-- 207 million indicated ounces of silver (Ag) at Galena Hill, “ground
zero” at Navidad. Plus over one million tons of lead and another
36 million “inferred” ounces of the precious metal.
-- 61 million oz. Ag at nearby “Navidad Hill” and the “connector” zone
that links Navidad Hill to Galena Hill. One intersection boasted
an astounding 1,165 grams of silver per ton over 28 meters.
-- A more recent “blind” discovery at Calcite Hill that yielded a 72-meter intersection with a respectable 202 g/t Ag.
-- The new “Sector Zeta” and “Loma de la Plata” zones. Channel
samples from Sector Zeta have returned in excess of 1% copper and 100
g/t silver while Loma de la Plata shows in excess of 200 to 400 g/t Ag
over more than 50 meters. Drilling has yet to begin.
Basically, Navidad contains some
seriously rich rock. One drill result was 35.8 m of 2,850 g/t of
silver. That's about 92 ounces/tonne of silver over 117
feet! At $7.26/oz., that rock is worth
$668/tonne! And most of IMA's silver is close to
surface, and will thus likely be mined by the cheaper open-pit method,
that can sometimes be profitable when mining rock worth about
$30/tonne! (This explains why the cut-off grade when determining
resources is as low as 103g/tonne or 3.3 oz./ tonne.) One IMA
geologist stated that he thought Navidad was much more than a potential
mine: it was a mining district!
To date, the current resource
calculation is as follows: total indicated resources are 271
million ounces of silver, and an additional 36 million ounces inferred,
for a total of 307 million ounces of silver. Those numbers are
43-101 compliant. These numbers will likely continue to grow
significantly over the next several years as drilling the district
continues year round due to the mild climate.
Conveniently located near one of
Argentina’s major highways, Navidad presents no major infrastructure
problems. It’s the kind of wealth-generating property mining giants the
world over are scrambling to find — or buy out at increasingly inflated
prices. Majors today are involved in a strategy of merger mania
as the quickest way to grow their depleted property portfolios.
And Barrick Gold is already a major shareholder in IMA.
One way to judge the quality of the
project is to look at the quality of the people the project
attracts. On Feb. 17th 2005, IMA announced the appointment of
Eng. Augusto Baertl to be responsible for the development of IMA's 100%
owned Navidad silver deposit in Argentina. As the former President of
Compañia Minera Antamina, Mr. Baertl developed Antamina, which
involved a capital investment of US $2.2 Billion. Antamina was
operational ahead of schedule, under budget and in strict compliance
with international social and environmental standards.
IMA is headed up by Joseph Grosso, an
old pro in the search for Latin American resources. Mr. Grosso’s
family ties and connections in Argentina gave him the inside track on
cherry-picking the country’s premier properties in the early
1990s. That’s when Buenos Aires finally gave the go-ahead for
international mining ventures to do business in their highly
prospective and under-explored provinces.
IMA currently has just over 44 million
shares outstanding — 49 million shares fully diluted when all warrants
and options are considered. If all warrants and stock options are
exercised, it would bring in about $12 million Cdn. Management
owns 15-17% of this debt-free company. With a February 25th
closing price of $3.88 Cdn, the market cap for this stock is a very
reasonable $154 million in U.S. dollars.
At current share prices, the cost to
investors for the ounces in the ground, may be calculated as follows:
$154 million market cap / 307 mil oz. = $.57/oz. Or, if the
exploration potential of IMA is up to a billion ounces of silver, then
perhaps the following may be more accurate: $154 million market
cap / 1000 mil oz. = $.15/oz. Expressed another way, you may be
getting title from between 13 to 47 ounces in the ground, for one ounce
of silver's worth of stock. Meaning, if you spend the equivalent
of $7.26 on stock, you are buying title to 13 to 47 ounces of silver in
the ground.
Why so reasonably priced? After
news of the initial discovery at Navidad, another Canadian miner filed
a “nuisance” suit alleging that IMA used its proprietary geologic data
to zero in on Navidad. The dispute centers around the bid process
for the Calcatreau gold property in Argentina, now wholly owned by
Aquiline Resources, the plaintiff in the suit against IMA. IMA,
along with Aquiline, was a bidder for Calcatreau, and was shown
confidential data for the purposes of placing a valuation on
Calcatreau. All parties signed confidentiality agreements that
excluded them from exploring and staking ground within some three
kilometers of Calcatreau. Navidad, a silver-lead property, lies
approximately 42 kilometers from Calcatreau, a gold property.
Many have already dismissed Aquiline’s claims entirely. The CEO
of Aquiline, also a principal in other mining ventures, has earned a
reputation as something of a serial litigant, and is currently involved
in a separate mining lawsuit in Australia. Meanwhile, shares of
IMA will continue to trade at a discount until the matter can be
cleared. A court hearing is scheduled in British Columbia in
October 2005.
Expect the suit to be settled in IMA’s
favor — eventually. If Aquiline had the same information as IMA,
why didn’t they stake Navidad? Or mining giant Newmont, which had
previously owned Calcatreau and generated the proprietary data
purchased by Aquiline? When the truth is revealed, it will show
that IMA was actively exploring the Chubut province in Patagonia and
was already zeroing in on Navidad at the time they kicked the tires at
Calcatreau.
“There is absolutely nothing to the claim,” CEO Grosso states flatly.
To summarize, no investment today
offers the explosive upside and limited downside of silver. And
very few publicly traded silver companies offer the kind of extreme
leverage, proven deposit growth, and blue-sky potential of IMA
Exploration.
Stock prices go up and down, and past performance is neither an indicator, nor counter-indicator, of future performance. The
information in this essay has been gathered from many sources that are
believed to be reliable. No guarantees are being made that this
information is reliable. All potential investors are encouraged
to contact IMA to verify all important information.
For more information and to get on IMA’s mailing list, contact the company at info@imaexploration.com, and/or visit their web site at http://www.imaexploration.com.
You can also call the company toll-free at 1-800-901-0058. Mr.
Sean Hurd is the person in charge of investor relations — he’ll be glad
to hear from you.
Jack Myers is a seasoned investor in
the junior mining sector. Myers has not been paid by IMA Exploration
for producing this article, nor does he work for the company. He
does own shares in IMA Exploration, as well as shares in IMA’s sister
company Golden Arrow Resources (GRG-TSX.V), a grassroots explorer which
was spun off from IMA in 2004. Mr. Myers works as a technical
writer in Valley Forge, PA. He can be contacted at jackmyers@peoplepc.com.
Jason Hommel sponsored the writing of
this essay by offering to give a 100 oz. silver bar to whomever could
write the best essay on silver and IMA Exploration. Jason edited
the essay, and added a few bits of information that was researched and
highlighted in a total of 18 essays submitted. Jason also owns
shares in IMA Exploration, and Golden Arrow, and has not been paid by
either company to write this article. Jason Hommel writes a weekly
silver stock report that covers the market caps of about 80 silver
stocks. See silverstockreport.com
--------------
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------------------------
My Conference Schedule:
I will be attending:
1. The PDAC in March 6-9 http://www.pdac.ca/ --I will not be speaking, just attending.
2. The gold show in Chicago in the spring--2x a year. --I will be on a panel
3. The 4 annual Cambridge House shows (I usually speak on silver for a 1/2 hour, both days, and maybe a panel)... see
www.goldshow.ca The next is the Calgary Resource Investment
Conference, April 10 & 11
4. The show in Idaho again, the 3rd Silver Summit. --I'll be speaking.
5. GATA's show in the fall.
----------------
To read about my religious views, see my other web site, bibleprophesy.org
There are two essays near the top of the page that explain why I
believe the entire world will return to using gold and silver as money
again before the end times. See Ezekiel 38. Also, see my essay: Biblical
Guidelines for Managing your Money
----------------
Because I have a market reach, I also
receive a lot of tips about
silver stocks. And thus, I believe I may have invested in some of
the best
ones that came my way. If you believe I may have an edge based on
my work and unique position... then the best way for me to share this with you
is to is tell you more precisely where I put my money. It's not investment
advice. I offer a monthly "look at my portfolio". I
do not issue recommendations, and I don't
list number of shares or the size of my portfolio, but I will show
the top investments in my portfolio, by rank, updated monthly. It includes which stocks are 9% and more of my portfolio, those between 9% and 6%, under 6%, under 3%, and under 1%.
To order, visit: silverstockreport.com
Price: Monthly rebilling at $39.95. --most convenient, best customer service
Customer Service: http://www.silverstockreport.com/customerservice.htm
Toll Free Customer Service Hotline: 800-370-4154
-----------------
Private Placement Opportunities for Sophisticated/Accredited investors: (This is not a solicitation for any stock, and I'm not
brokering any securities) To be added to my PP email list, sign up at http://www.silverstockreport.com/cgi-bin/dada/mail.cgi
Just select the second list from the drop down menu.
-------------------
2 Silver Stock Funds
1. Richard Greene, thundercapital.com $100,000 minimum, 2 year hold, sophisticated/accredited investors only. Will use margin, and/or short sell.
2. Philip Judge or Simon Heapes, anglofareast.com Less than $5000 minimum? No margin or shortselling.
-------------------
General Commentary on Silver
(slightly modified from last week):
Now, I think it's time that the silver
community started a letter writing campaign to the editors of
newspapers around the world, to tell them about silver.
Here is a sample letter:
May 21, 2004
Dear Editor,
I'm a silver investor. I believe
paper money is fraudulent. There is over 30 trillion dollars,
U.S., worth of bonds in the world, but less than 2 trillion dollars
worth of gold, according to gold.org.
As of April, 2004, the size of M3, the
money in U.S. banks, has reached 9.1 trillion dollars, yet due to
fractional reserve banking, the total of U.S. currency and coin in
circulation is only 724 billion dollars as reported by treas.gov.
At silverinstitute.org and
cpmgroup.com, they each report that silver has been in a deficit for
about 15 years, where world mine supply has been about 500 million
ounces, scrap supply about 200 million ounces, and industrial and
jewelry demand about 800 million ounces. The difference, about
100 million ounces, has come from investor and government selling,
drawing down reserves of silver. Known supplies of refined silver
are down to about 250 to 600 million ounces. At the COMEX,
they are down to 48 million ounces of silver left that is registered
for delivery, which you can see at nymex.com.
The governments of the world are
printing up too much paper money, and the world is running out of real
money, silver. I believe this will lead to the price of silver
rising dramatically in value, around the world.
I urge your readers to verify the statistics I have provided, and to
make their own decisions.
Sincerely,
Jason Hommel
------------------
I wrote an article:
Miners to Use Silver as Cash
- 27 November 2003
Apparantly, I was about 6 months too early in my predictions, but
that's ok, I'm a very long term thinker and investor. I did not
miss the mark by too much time, and if you think in terms of decades, I
was right on the mark.
There are several
companies
that are increasingly deciding to hold their cash in the form of silver
bullion. These companies are:
FSR.TO (First Silver Reserve)
SSRI SSO.V (SILVER STANDARD RSC)
SRLM.PK (STERLING MINING)
EDR.V EDRGF.PK (ENDEAVOUR SILVER)
------------------
The Silver Valley in Idaho is bringing back the
use of silver as money. A silver one-ounce coin, a "Sterling" to
be used as a $10 piece.
http://shoshonenewspress.com/index.asp?Sec=News&str=2869
------------------
For news on the New Hampshire Sound Money Bill, that proposes to use U.S. Treasury
minted Silver Eagles and Gold Eagles as money see: http://www.goldmoneybill.org/
25 Reasons why the Sound Money Bill Must Be Supported
by Jason Hommel
--------------------------
There are two excellent annual silver surveys that are sponsored by
industry.
The survey by silverinstitute.org costs $195, 87 pages.
http://www.silverinstitute.org/wssum03.pdf
-- 8 page free summary of last year's reeport.
The survey by cpmgroup.com costs $150, 162 pages.
http://www.cpmgroup.com/SSpress2004.pdf
--3 page press release.
The two reports present
the case that about 500 million oz. of silver are mined each year,
about 200 million oz. of silver comes from scrap, and about 100 million
oz. of silver comes from investor dis-hoarding, either by individuals
or
government sources, in order to meet the annual demand of about 800
million oz. of silver by industry & jewelry. This is wildly
bullish, because investors are net selling more than buying, and I
think the potential of investor demand is huge, and can be measured by
seeing how much paper money there is in the world.
--------------------------
Here are two U.S. Government produced
reports on silver, containing data on years from 1900 to present, on
U.S. & world production, and U.S. consumption, and U.S.
industry
& government stockpiles.
Report #1
http://www.goldismoney.com/ssr/USsilver.xls
Report #2
http://www.goldismoney.com/ssr/USsilver2.xls
I evaluated these government produced reports in my silver stock report
#36.
In sum, we are running out of silver. The U.S. government had
over 3 billion ounces of silver in 1940, and today, has very little
left, or none.
--------------------------
The Commodities Futures Trading Commission
The CFTC report on the allegations of manipulation in the silver market
-- 9 page report
The CFTC report confirmes much of the research above, and almost
outlines the bullish case for silver!
--My comments on the CFTC report are in silver stock report #34 & #35
--------------------------
Silver consumption, per
capita, in the U.S. is the same today, in 2004, as it was in 1945.
And what is the per capita consumption of silver in the U.S.
today? 5500 tonnes x 32152 = 177 million ounces of silver used
per 285 million people. 177 / 285 = .62 oz. silver consumed per
year, per person, in the U.S., whether in 1945, or in 2004. Each
person in the U.S. today, on average, uses 6 tenths of an ounce of
silver.
--------------------------
As the New York Times, January 11, 1859, page 2 said---
"It is well known that the most colossal fortunes the world ever saw
have been based on silver mines..."
--quote found by Charles Savoie
----------------------------
WHERE and HOW to BUY SILVER BULLION
http://www.silverstockreport.com/buybullion.htm
----------------------------
My 2005-2010 price predictions for gold and silver:
2005: $595/oz. gold, 50:1 ratio = $12/oz. silver
2006: $1011/oz. gold, 30:1 ratio = $34/oz. silver
2007: $1719/oz. gold, 10:1 ratio = $172/oz. silver
2008: $2923/oz. gold, 5:1 ratio = $ 585/oz. silver
2009: $4,969/oz. gold, 1:1 ratio = $4969/oz. silver
2010: $8448/oz. gold, 5:1 ratio = $1698/oz. silver
2011+: infinity dollars/oz. gold, infinity dollars/oz. silver.
I just moved up the years, one each from last year. The reason
why I'm so bullish is the scarcity of silver, and also, I believe one
single billionaire could move the price, at any time, to $25/oz.
It would be folly of me to suggest that 2005 should see an average of
$8-10/oz. for silver. It could fly high, starting at any time.
I calculate the gold price rise by guessing that by 2010, M3 will have
a "gold-value" like it did in 1980, which is to say, M3 was worth 2
Billion oz. of gold or less. It also assumes M3 will about triple
in that
time. These figures are conservative, because I see no reason
that
M3 should be valued more than the gold the U.S. actually holds, which
is
a mere 261 million oz., not billion. Today, the M3 value is $8870
billion / $425/oz. = 19 billion oz. of gold M3 could buy in
theory.
The silver:gold ratio is also a very, very vague guess, reflective of
monetary
demand chasing silver, which is more scarce than gold in above ground,
refined
form. I have no idea when the ratio of 15:1 will be exceeded, I'm just
totally
guessing. I suppose it could happen this year or next month for
all
I know. Of course my real price targets are infinity dollars per
oz.
for both gold and silver when all is said and done, I just don't know
how
long that will take, nor what year it will be. But my point in
producing
the price predictions is to show my bullishness for silver and gold.
----------------------------
A great overview on
silver: Douglas Kanarowski's
78
Approaching Forces For Higher Silver Prices
See also Douglas Kanarowski's article: What
Impact Will Digital Photography Have on Silver?
Doug's third article is also
excellent: Silver -- the next big thing in the global
markets? Answering A Few Silver Questions
----------------------------
See the 600 year silver chart to see how undervalued silver
really is:
http://goldinfo.net/silver600.html
----------------------------
Look at the summary of the world silver survey by GFMS Limited on behalf of The Silver Institute :
http://www.gfms.co.uk/Publications%20Samples/WSS03-summary.pdf
Note, there is virtually no
monetary nor investment demand. Note, the 2002 mine production
(585 mil oz.) is greatly exceeded by industrial, photo, and jewelry
demand. (838 mil oz.). Note the chart on page five, "Supply from
above-ground stocks".
The difference between mine supply and industrial demand was met by a
combination of three factors: 1. Government selling, 2.
Private selling, 3. Recycling
U.S. government selling is ending, as their stocks have run out, or
will run out. This factor will reverse, because the U.S.
government will need silver to continue their coin program, and/or need
silver when they wake up and decide they need to replenish their
strategic stockpile for
domestic security. Silver is a war material. China's
selling of silver will also likely turn into buying, as China will need
silver for continued industrial development, or when they also lose
faith in the U.S. dollar.
Private selling has been rapidly shrinking and is now almost ended, and
should turn into buying, and become monetary demand. Monetary
demand is everything in the silver supply / demand situation.
It's not now. Now, it's nothing. But it will become
something incredible, because the dollar is dying.
----------------------------
The following is a "must read": Ted Butler's best ever
explanation of how silver is manipulated lower than it should be.
http://www.investmentrarities.com/11-04-03.html
Over 3600 people have signed the silver petition to stop the
manipulation at the COMEX:
http://www.PetitionOnline.com/comex/
Ted correctly points out that a lower price creates excessive demand
from consumers. However, Ted Butler does not point out, and
neglects to mention, that a perpetually low price also creates lack of
demand from investors who are "trend investors".
I think most silver experts over-analyze all the supply and demand
factors of the silver market. No factor is more important than
monetary demand. The force of photographic demand is like a light
breeze compared to the
hurricane or tornado of monetary demand. Monetary demand is
everything.
----------------------------
Consider the gold market for a
moment: Even short selling at the COMEX is nothing compared to
monetary demand. The short position most certainly helps to
depress the price of gold as
the short position is growing larger. However, it adds fuel to
the
fire if there is short covering, and thus, it can boost the gold price
later. But the commercial short position on the COMEX is next to
nothing compared to the non-reported "over the counter" trading that is
done that does not appear on the COMEX.
(Numbers in metric tonnes, 32,152 oz. per tonne.)
870 tonnes -- the paper position at the COMEX, 280,000 contracts for
100 oz. each.
5,000 tonnes -- the official number admitted that the central banks
have sold.
15,000 tonnes -- the number GATA research shows that central banks have
sold / or leased.
30,000 tonnes -- the number of official central bank gold, minus either
the 5000 or 15,000 tonnes.
145,000 tonnes -- all the gold mined in the history of the world.
2,600 tonnes -- annual mine supply
4,000 tonnes -- annual demand
And all of that is nothing compared to the amount of dollars out there
that exist that could buy gold. $20 trillion bonds, $9 trillion M3 =
$29 Trillion. A mere 1% is $290 Billion, which, at $500 /oz. is a massive demand of
18,039 tonnes. Do you understand what that means?
That means that far,
far less than 1% of dollars, in either bonds or M3 can buy gold,
because
there simply is not that much gold available.
Long before 1% of U.S. paper dollars tries to buy gold, gold
will be going up well over $1000/oz., and silver will be headed up over
$50/oz.
----------------------------
To scare away investors--that is the entire reason gold and silver
are manipulated in the first place. Only the trend investors can
be
deceived. The problem is that nearly everyone is a trend
investor. Very few investors understand value. If people
knew the facts and used
their brains, the available above-ground refined silver would be gone
by
tomorrow, and the price would be well over $20-50/oz. But don't
trust
me, check the numbers and follow the links:
"The money chart"
1,000,000,000,000: 1 Trillion dollars
1,000,000,000: 1 Billion dollars
1,000,000: 1 Million dollars
$200,000,000,000,000: Estimated total derivative exposure of all banks in the entire world. (20 x U.S. GDP)
$118,000,000,000,000: World Global Capital Markets (Stocks, Bonds, &?) Feb 2005 McKinsey Global Inst.
$75,000,000,000,000: U.S. Govt. unfunded liabilities; social security, etc.
$46,000,000,000,000: Est. World Money supply 2004; from M2 & GDP of EU, USA, Japan, & China (see SSR #56)
$45,153,000,000,000: U.S. Household wealth,
as of first quarter, 2004. (Includes Real Estate, and investments)
$49,000,000,000,000:
World bond market, Fall 2004 PWL Capital Inc.
$37,000,000,000,000: Total global equity market capitalization June 2001 UN.ORG
$21,000,000,000,000: U.S. bond market, Sept, '03: IAPF treas.gov
$11,447,800,000,000: U.S. GDP, 2004 q1 http://www.bea.doc.gov/bea/dn/home/gdp.htm
$17,600,000,000,000: Total global market capitalization of NYSE stocks, Sept. '04 http://nyse.com
$9,500,000,000,000: M3 (money in U.S. banks) Jan '05 http://tinyurl.com/vra0
$7,700,000,000,000: US debt, 2-23-2005 http://www.publicdebt.treas.gov/opd/opdpenny.htm
$2,360,000,000,000: U.S. annual budget 2005 http://tinyurl.com/3xbd2
$1,860,000,000,000: World "official" gold mined in all of
history, 145,000 T (4.6 bil oz.) @ $400/oz.
http://tinyurl.com/vrcc
$400,000,000,000:
Estimated silver mined in all of history: 40 billion oz? @
$10/oz. http://snipurl.com/93j1
$738,000,000,000: Total U.S. paper currency
& coin in circulation, Sept. '04 http://www.fms.treas.gov/bulletin/index.html
$700,000,000,000: Annual U.S. current account deficit (trade deficit) for 2004.
$596,000,000,000: U.S. budget deficit
(Fiscal year '03-'04). http://www.publicdebt.treas.gov/opd/opdpenny.htm
$380,000,000,000: Market Cap of General Electric (biggest U.S. company)
http://tinyurl.com/vrcn
$301,000,000,000: Debt of General Motors (biggest U.S. car company) Feb 2005
$109,600,000,000: US gold, 261 mil oz., @ $420/oz. http://tinyurl.com/vsr9
$100,000,000,000: all the world's gold
stocks/equities (estimated?)
$75,000,000,000: Money flowed into
Equity funds in the first quarter, 2004
$65,000,000,000: Increase in the U.S. debt in 23 days in Feb., 2005
$19,000,000,000: Market Cap of Newmont Feb '05 (biggest gold company in the world)
$11,000,000,000: Increase in the debt of GM from Jan to Feb, 2005!
$8,226,000,000: all the world's
"primary" silver stocks (80 of them on this list, as of June 25, 2004) --my own data.
$6,710,000,000: 671 mil oz. of "identifiable" silver bullion left in
the
entire world, according to GFMS @ $10/oz.
$288,000,000: 40 mil oz. of "registered"
COMEX silver bullion (1-05-05) @ $7.5/oz. http://tinyurl.com/vrcw
$56,250,000: Limit 7.5 mil oz. of silver @ $7.5/oz. (position limit of 1500 contracts per trader) at COMEX / NYMEX
$11,250,000: Limit 1.5 mil oz. of silver @ $7.5/oz. potential 1 month delivery limit at COMEX / NYMEX
$100,000: Limit of FDIC insurance per bank account.
$5,000: Limit of average cash withdrawl from small town banks,
without ordering cash in advance.
$300: Limit of average ATM daily withdrawl limit
So, what do all those stastistics mean? (Besides the fact that real silver, and even paper money, is strictly limited?)
The numbers above are the real
fundamentals of the silver and gold markets. Silver and gold are
money. To study the potential demand for real money, we need to
know how much paper money exists that could, one day, show up as demand
for real money.
Note that the U.S. government is now adding to the national debt, each
month, about $70 billion, which is growing close to the entire value of
the U.S. official gold hoard of about $109 billion. This is
extremely profitable for the creators of paper money, but also
unsustainable.
Note how General Motors has borrowed $301 billion, which is several
times more than the value of the U.S. official gold hoard at $109
billion. How did General Motors borrow more value in paper money
than the entire U.S. has in real money? Note how GM borrowed more
money in early 2005 in one month, $11 billion, than the entire market capitalization of the entire silver stock market.
Note how the annual budget of the U.S. government, at $2.3 trillion, is
greater than the value of all the gold ever mined in the history of the
world, at $1.8 trillion.
Note how the value of the world bond market, at $49 trillion, far
exceeds the value of the gold in the world, at just under $2
trillion. Bonds are an investment type that directly competes
with gold, and rather poorly in the last few years. Bonds pay
1-5% these days, while gold has gone up from $250/oz. to $450/oz., a
gain of 80% since 2001.
Note how extremely tiny is the silver market, relative to the tiny gold market, relative to the money and bond markets.
Now, a popular myth is that there is not enough gold and silver to do
the work of money. However, that is not true. If gold and
silver are valuable enough, there is always enough gold and silver to
act as money.
So, how valuable do you think gold and silver will get, when people
start to sell overvalued stocks and bonds for real money, gold and
silver, which are the only real alternatives to protect themselves from
bankruptcies of companies like GM, from bankruptcies of big
banks, and from the continued inflation?
See, the value of bonds will go down, as interest rates must
rise. Interest rates must rise to match the capital gains that
exist in the gold market--to get people back into bonds. But gold
is rising, what, 40% per year? Imagine 50% interest rates in the
bond market to draw people back to bonds! GM will soon not be
able to refinance their $300 billion in debt. Imagine the capital
destruction in the values of the bond market as interest rates rise,
and as bond values move inverse to that from all the selling in the
bond market.
The $49 trillion in the bond market MUST flow into the gold and silver markets as this process of debt destruction continues.
For a while I was using M3 and dividing that by the US gold (261
million ounces), which implies the us dollar is 84 times more valuable
than it
should be, and that gold should hit $34,000/oz. after the fraud is
destroyed. Today, I realize I need to add in the Bond market,
because bonds are an
asset class designed to siphon away and replace real money, which is to
say, gold. This gives a price of about $111,111/oz. for
gold.
At $ 430/oz, this implies that
US bonds and paper currency are 258 times more overvalued than gold.
Gold is overvalued relative to silver, because at current prices, it
takes about 60
ounces of silver to buy 1 ounce of gold. Historically, this ratio
was 15 or 16. Given the silver shortage, this ratio will hit 10:1
or 5:1, or even 1:1. Thus, gold is perhaps 60 times
more overvalued
than silver.
Silver is overvalued relative to certain select silver stocks, perhaps
by a factor of 3 or 10 or 20 to one.
Thus, if you multiply all those numbers, 258 x 60 x
10, You will see that bonds and currency are overvalued relative
to select silver stocks by a factor of 154,800 to one. In other
words, if silver stocks reach their true value, and paper currency
disappears as it always does, then you might expect certain silver
stocks to go up in relative value by a factor of 154,800 times more than
they are worth today. By that time, you should
definitely sell the silver stocks, and buy gold.
Can silver stocks really appreciate so much? Is there historical
evidence for such a crazy thing? Yes.
See http://www.sterlingmining.com/old.html
Excerpt:
"CDE rose from penny stock status (.02 in 1967) to an NYSE-listed, $60
per share stock in 1980. In fact, the average share on the Spokane
Stock Exchange rose in value nearly 16000% (yes, sixteen THOUSAND
percent), as America
could not get enough of silver and silver stocks."
CDE rose by a factor of 3000, or 300,000%, and by 1980, the metals boom
was stopped short, and paper money's death was postponed. If
paper money dies a death that lasts a generation world-wide, then even
greater gains
should have been expected.
For this reason, a wise silver stock investor should NEVER sell silver
stocks for paper cash. A wise silver stock investor who looks for
value would never sell a fairly valued silver stock for an overvalued
silver stock that traded for hundreds of thousands of times more value
than it should
be. Likewise, there is no excuse for a silver stock investor to
have
any cash or money market or bonds in his portfolio for any reasonable
length
of time, except for when selling one silver stock to raise the cash for
another
silver stock, or for when you need to raise the cash to buy silver, or
a
private placement in another silver stock.
So, if you want some fairly liquid alternatives to cash, in case you
don't know what other silver stocks to buy at the time, here they are:
1. Buy silver. You can hold silver in an IRA.
2. Buy CEF. Central Fund of Canada, ticker symbol
CEF. It's gold/silver bullion fund. It has 50 oz. of silver
for every
1 oz. of gold. The fund is fairly liquid, you can buy it as
easily
as any other stock, and is a good cash substitute. Unfortunately,
given the current ratio, about 55% or more of the value is in gold.
3. Buy a fairly large cap silver stock, with fairly large volume,
that is stilll fairly cheap on the list. Canadian
Zinc, Sterling Mining, IMA Resources, and perhaps Mines Management and
Cardero are probably the best five
candidates. These all have market caps ranging close to $50-$100
million dollars or more, and are more liquid than many others. (I
used to recommend PAAS and SSRI for this kind of "liquid alternative",
but they are no longer as cheap, and the others have now
increased in liquidity, and are now much more suitable for this kind of
trading.)
----------------------------
The sheer stupidity of big money not recognizing the value of the
world's remaining silver is utterly shocking to the rational
mind. Clearly, bond holders are utterly deceived, and totally
unaware of the situation. All my readers should understand and
know that bonds were originally invented to suck the capital and money
(gold and silver) away from the people. Bonds today are a paper
promise to repay paper. What a con game! Are bond holders
conservative and safe? No, they are fools!
There is nothing safe about holding a paper promise to receive more
paper
when we have been experiencing hyperinflation for the past two and a
half
years!
See my prior essay, " Inflation
& Deflation During Hyperinflation "
----------------------------
And the fund investors who buy paper silver futures contracts instead
of real silver are a very odd bunch of fools, for they should realize
that nobody can deliver 800+ million ounces of silver promised in the
paper contracts and options that does not exist. It's like the
paper longs are betting on the bank run happening, but they all are
making sure they get at the end of the long line. Instead, they
could go front and
center, where there is an open window available where you can go and
get
physical silver, and nobody is there. Idiots! If you know a
bank run is going to happen, and you are actually willing to bet on it,
then go and withdraw your money before it is too late! Don't bet
on
it happening, which, if it does happen, your contracts will be
defaulted
on! Amazingly blind idiots. Wake up!
See also my prior essay, "The Moral
Failures of the Paper Longs"
----------------------------
How bullish am I on silver? Here's an interesting way to put it: "60 times
infinity" dollars per ounce.
I believe the dollar will eventually be destroyed, likely within my
lifetime, hence the "infinity" part. I believe the ratio of
silver
to gold may be equal during a spike, when the market realizes that
above-ground
refined silver is more rare than gold. Thus, silver may
outperform
gold by a factor of 60 times
better. Currently, the ratio is 60
ounces
of silver can buy one ounce of gold or 60:1.
I may end up selling silver for gold, some at the 10:1 silver to gold
ratio, some more at 5:1, and I would sell any silver remaining at a 1:1
ratio, that we may hit during a supply/demand crunch during a paper
money
collapse.
How we can tell if silver is leading gold, or if gold is leading
silver? IE, which is going up more, faster than the other?
The way you can tell is by looking at the ratio. If the
silver:gold ratio is going up (say, from 60:1 to 80:1), then gold is
moving up faster (because it takes 5 more silver oz. to buy an oz. of
gold. If the ratio is going down (from 60:1 to 40:1), then silver
is moving up faster. So, keep an eye on the ratio.
----------------------------
For a list of bullion dealers:
http://www.silverstockreport.com/buybullion.htm
For a list of Brokers that handle Canadian issues and/or pink sheets:
http://www.bibleprophesy.org/SilverStockExtra.html
To track the 163 ticker
symbols of the 100+ stocks on this list at yahoo: (Updated on
April 2)
http://www.bibleprophesy.org/SilverStockExtra.html
To learn All about Canadian law, 43-101, about reserves and resources:
http://www.bcsc.bc.ca/Publications/mineral_projects_sept03.pdf
A good web site that hosts posting boards for many of the smaller
canadian stocks (that Yahoo! finance does not have boards for) is stockhouse.com
Click on "Bullboards".
----------------------------
This is a list of primary silver stocks.
I count a company's ounces of gold as 10 oz of silver. Why? Because
I have a very strong positive bias in favor of silver over gold.
Given my bias in favor of much, much higher silver prices, then, to
me, the grades of silver are far less important than buying more oz. in
the ground. More oz. in the ground at a lower cost is the most
important consideration for me.
My method is simple. Cost per ounce in the ground. How much do you get
(silver reserve totals), and how much does it cost (market cap)? The
cost is the market cap divided by the silver reserve totals. Cheaper is
better. Buy low, sell high.
Disclaimers, Warnings, and Advice: I have gathered the information
below over the course of several months. I believe it is accurate to
the best
of my ability. I have made mistakes in the data from time to time. I'm
human. I have
collected the information from public sources such as company web sites
and public information found at yahoo.com to get the stock prices. This
report
in no way guarantees the accuracy of the information below, since the
information may change at any time. The number of outstanding shares
can change as a
company engages in new share issues to raise more capital through
private
placements, or if outstanding warrants (and options) are exercised and
converted
into shares, or if shares are bought back. Shares can be consolidated,
or split. The number of ounces of silver in the ground can also change,
as
these are often only estimates. The number can also change up or down,
depending
on drilling results.
This report is not investment advice. This report contains
information that may or may not be up to date, and may be
inaccurate. I urge
you to contact the company and do your own research to verify the
information contained in this report.
This report is not an offer to buy or sell any securities. I am
not a broker. Only your broker can buy or sell securities for you.
I urge you to consult with your investment advisor to determine whether
these kinds of investments are right for you.
I also caution you to be aware of your investment advisor's advice,
they are sometimes paid to push things like mutual funds, bonds and
other
securities that may not be in your best interest to buy. Some
investment
houses are short physical metal, and thus, they may attempt to strongly
discourage you from buying precious metal or precious metals
investments.
I believe that the propaganda machine in support of frauds such as
bonds
and the dollar is so strong, that they may even believe what they say
when
they give bad advice to avoid the safety and protection of precious
metals.
It is most likely that they simply do not understand the precious
metals
market as well as you do.
All total estimates of "ounces in the ground" can vary widely. There
are "proven and probable reserves" which are the highest category of
certainty which is obtained through many drill holes, and then at the
least accurate, there are "inferred resources" which are hardest to
estimate. Additionally, every miner always has "more silver properties
that need to be explored, which probably contain more silver". For the
purposes of this report, I
have added all those numbers together. It is believed that all these
"ounce
in the ground" estimates can be profitably mined at $5-6 per ounce
silver,
or lower. Thus, I believe that when silver trades for $15/oz. or above,
that all of these ounces can be mined at a substantial profit.
I may be wrong. (I probably make mistakes in every article, and there
have been updates and corrections made each week, especially as prices
change.)
Mining is a risky business. You need to be willing to sustain a total
loss of your investment for various unforeseen accidents. Silver stock
companies can do stupid things to shareholders such as take on debt, or
issue more stock at too low prices which reduces the percentage of the
company
you may own (dilution). Yet, they need to issue shares to raise capital
for drilling, and then an even bigger dilution to build a working mine.
They may sell YOUR silver too cheaply, or worse, hedge the price of
YOUR
silver just as it begins to go up if they lock in a price which t