Silver Stocks Comparative Valuations
   Silver Stocks--Comparative Valuations 
Report # 56
by Jason Hommel
silverstockreport.com

Friday, Feb 25th, 2005

A day's wage used to be a silver dime, a silver quarter, or maybe a silver dollar.  2000 years ago in Rome, a silver denarius was a day's wage, and that coin was about the size of a silver dime, too.  Even as recent as 100 years ago, a silver dime was a day's wage.   A silver dime today costs about 50 cents, at $7.20/oz. for silver.  If the world returns to using silver as money, that silver dime might be worth about $150 or more--which is what a day's wage is in U.S. dollars today.  Thus, a $5000 investment in silver bullion today may be worth about $1.5 million, or more, in the future.

However, silver is more rare today that it has ever been.  For over 50 years, silver has been consumed in electronics, because silver is the greatest conductor of electricity known to man.  We still consume more than we produce.  About 900 million oz. of silver are consumed annually, and just under 600 million ounces mined annually.  Thus, there is is seven times as much refined gold as silver...  Buy real silver, it is scarce, real wealth, and cannot go to zero value, and I expect silver may rise in price nearly 300 fold, or more due to the insatiable industrial demand and the scarcity.  With that point of view, I began researching and investing in silver stocks, and this report is the fruit of my efforts, and the collective wisdom of the feedback I get from my readers.

This week's report lists the market capitalizations for about 76 silver stocks.  There are about 27 silver stocks that list reserves, resources (and exploration potential) which I calculate by using my "ounce in the ground" formula.  There are about 49 explorers.  There are about 30 additional "silver" stocks with incomplete information.  This report goes out now to over 13,600 investors each week.  Additions & Changes from last week are in bold. 

Quick links to other areas in this report (Index of this report):  Table of Contents:
[Summary list of Silver stocks]
[My Methodology]
[Weekly Commentary]
[Subscribe to the "look at my portfolio". ($34/mo.)]
[Subscribe to my Private Placement notice list (FREE)]
[Subscribe to this Weekly Silver Stock Report (FREE)]
[My Conference Schedule]
[General Commentary on Silver]
[WHERE and HOW to BUY SILVER BULLION]
[The money chart]
[Disclaimers, Warnings, and Advice]
[Company profiles]
[Company profiles with the most resources, and least cost]
[Profiles of Explorers]
[Links]
[Silver Stocks I own]
[Archive of about 40 of my past essays]
[Archive of past Silver Stock Reports]

Kitco reports silver at $7.26/oz. as of Friday, 3PM West Coast, US, which was used to calculate the following figures. The CAN $ / US $ conversion factor is .8077.  I will use .81 for ease.   At today's prices, it takes 60 oz. of silver to buy 1 oz. of gold.

How to read the table below:  It starts on the left with:
The Stock Symbol that works at Yahoo! Finance (Company name) / The number that follows the company name, below, represents the company's resources, divided by the market cap as denominated in silver; thus, it is the number of silver oz. "in ground" that you gain title to when you trade away one ounce of silver to buy 1 oz. of silver's worth of stock.  The number is just one potential valuation method, in this case, an expression of leverage that silver stocks can give you, the higher the number, the better. / Next, I list the valuation price change since last week (and stock dilution, and resource changes, if any) as "up" or "down" or "even".  / Finally, there are additional comments (EXPT is "exploration potential")

Company names in bold have summaries below with updated information since the last report.  Click on the name to see the summary below.

This first list are the companies with information about reserves/resources/exploration potential.  The list is ordered/ranked based on the resource picture.  The most expensive (with the fewest silver resources given their market cap) are listed first.  Many of the bigger market cap companies, such as CDE, ABX, HL, BHP, Penoles, etc., are not listed here, because they are simply too expensive, based on their market capitalizations and resource ratio.
  1. FSR.TO FSLVF.PK (FIRST SILVER)   4.0 up  --producer, (not profitable '03 3rd q.) unhedged, owns bullion
  2. GRS GAM.TO (GAMMON LAKE)            4.1 up --producer, owns 26% of Mexgold
  3. * TM.V TUMIF.OB (TUMI RSCS)            4.4 up -- (24 EXPT) recent bonanza grade silver discovery
  4. WTZ WTC.TO (WESTERN SILVER)          4.6 even  -- (14 EXPT) large mine development cost. copper & zinc bonus
  5. MFN MFL.TO (MINEFINDERS)                4.9 up  --significant gold bonus, $35 mil cash on hand.
  6. PAAS (PAN AMERICAN SILVER)                5.2 up  --large market cap, cash rich, producer.
  7. IAU.TO ITDXF.PK (INTREPID MINRLS)    7.4 up --exploring in Mexico & Argentina.
  8. FAN.TO FRLLF.PK (FARALLON RSCS)   7.6 down --(13 EXPT) low grades, silver 1/3; also gold & zinc bonus.
  9. * CFTN.PK (CLIFTON MINING)                 7.7 up -- (186 EXPT) (order their colloidal silver now online 10% off)
  10. ORM.V OREXF.PK (OREMEX RES)          8.3 down  (35 EXPT) --Discovery! 20 oz. of silver/T over 292 feet!
  11. * PLE.V (PLEXMAR RES INC)                     10.1 up --has options on 2 new projects
  12. SSRI SSO.V (SILVER STANDARD)             10.2 down --large company, 20+ properties, owns silver bullion
  13. CZN.TO CZICF.PK (CDN ZINC)               10.7 down  --large zinc bonus, high grades, low start up costs, great EXPT
  14. FR.V FMJRF.PK (FIRST MAJESTIC)           11.6 up (39 EXPT) --producer in Mexico.
  15. * IMR.V IMXPF.OB (IMA EXPL)               12.6 up --(47 EXPT) in Argentina 83 oz. of silver/T over 35 meters!
  16. SHSH.PK (SHOSHONE SILVER)                    14.1 up  --leased properties; need payments; in Coeur d'Alene
  17. * SVL.V STVZF.PK (SILVERCREST)           15.0 up  --Silver in Central America, 11.5 oz. of silver/T over 313 feet
  18. * YZC.V (Yukon Zinc)                               16.0 down  --huge zinc bonus 60% zinc, 25% silver.
  19. RDV.TO RDFVF.PK (REDCORP VEN)         17.5 up --60% gold bonus
  20. * ABI.V ABMBF.PK  (ABCOURT MINES)    19.4 up --large zinc bonus, + existing infrastructure
  21. GGC.V GGCRF.PK (GENCO RECS)              20.3 even --producer in Mex.  Plans to expand and acquire
  22. HDA.V HUSIF.PK (HULDRA SILVER)           21.0 up   --very tiny, zinc bonus, low start up costs.
  23. CHD.V CHDSF.PK (CHARIOT RSCS)           22.0 up  --explorer, with inferred resources
  24. * CSG.TO CSGLF.PK (CAPSTONE GOLD)    22.7 down (84 EXPT) (In Mexico, resources are historical)
  25. * SRLM.PK (STERLING MINING)                   23.2 down --(55 EXPT) acquired the Sunshine in Coeur d'Alene
  26. * MGN (MINES MGMT)                                 26.7 up  --60% copper bonus (low grades), start up cost ~ $250 mil
  27. * ASM.V ASGMF.PK (AVINO SILVER)      30.4 down -- to own 100% of the Avino mine
* = I own shares

Next list: Exploration companies or producers with limited information on resources.  This list is in order (roughly) by market cap, the highest market cap companies are listed first. 
  1. MGR.V MGRSF.PK (MEXGOLD RSCS)       -- bonanza grade discovery on Jan 13th, 2004
  2. CDY CDU.V (CARDERO RSCS)  --silver, copper, & iron explorer, 19 properties
  3. AOT.V ASOLF.PK (ASCOT RSCS) -- owns percentage of Cardero, CDU.V
  4. * OTMN.PK (O.T. MINING)  very large exploration potential; recently discovered copper porphyry 1200 ft. long.
  5. MCAJF.PK (MACMIN LTD) --In Australia
  6. MAI.V MNEAF.OB (MINERA ANDES)  (gold bonus)
  7. TVI.TO TVIPF.PK (TVI PACIFIC) --A PRODUCER of a dore silver bar 96% silver, 4% gold
  8. * EDR.V EDRGF.PK (ENDEAVOUR SILVER)  A PRODUCER in Mexico
  9. * MMGG.OB (METALLINE MINE) --zinc/silver (historic high grade silver) (low cost revolutionary oxide zinc process)
  10. ECU.V ECUXF.PK (ECU SILVER MINI)  --A PRODUCER 50% gold bonus
  11. SPM.V SMNPF.PK (SCORPIO MINING) 
This next list has silver exploration companies with market caps under about $30 million
(Market cap = total number of shares fully diluted, times the share price.  It's what the company is "worth" in the market place, given the stock price, and is one of the important numbers I calculate each week in these lists.)
  1. CAUCF.PK (CALEDON RES)
  2. * CBE.V CBEFF.PK (CABO MINING) --Historic Silver and Cobalt district
  3. MAG.V MSLRF.PK (MAG SILVER)
  4. EXN.V EXLLF.PK (EXCELLON RSCS)  
  5. * KRE.V KREKF.PK (KENRICH ESKAY)  --Near Eskay Creek   
  6. BCM.V BCEKF.PK (BEAR CRK MINING)   
  7. EGD.V EGDMF.PK (ENERGOLD MINING)
This next list has silver exploration companies with market caps under about $20 million
  1. SDR.V SDURF.PK (STROUD RSCS) (partners with Amerix) --in Mexico
  2. * APM.V  (Amerix Precious Metals Corp) (partners with Stroud) --in Mexico
  3. EPZ.V ESPZF.PK (ESPERANZA SILVR)
  4. QTA.V QURAF.PK (QUATERRA RES)
  5. SSV.V (SOUTHERN SILVER EXPLORATION)
  6. PXI.V  PNXPF.PK (Planet Exploration Inc.)
  7. ROK.V ROCAF.PK (ROCA MINES INC)     --Near Eskay Creek  
  8. *KG.V KDKGF.PK (KLONDIKE GOLD)
  9. NJMC.OB (NEW JERSEY MIN)
  10. SRY.V (STINGRAY RSCS)
This next list has silver exploration companies with market caps under about $10 million dollars:
  1. APE.V (Apogee Minerals Ltd.)
  2. * CMA.V CRMXF.OB (CREAM MINERALS) --Low grade, large "exploration potential"
  3. MMG.V MMEEF.PK (MCMILLAN GOLD)
  4. GPR.V GPRLF.PK (GREAT PANTHER)
  5. SML.V SMLZF.PK (STEALTH MNRLS)
  6. GNG.V  GGTHF.PK (GOLDEN GOLIATH)  --Historic silver district in Mexico
  7. * PDO.V (PORTAL DE ORO RS)  --New Discoveries in Argentina
This next list has silver exploration companies with market caps under about $5 million dollars: (The real "penny stocks" are those with the smallest market caps, not the lowest share price!)
  1. IPT.V IMPJF.PK (Impact Minerals)
  2. LEG.V LEGCF.PK (LATEEGRA RSCS)     --Near Eskay Creek  
  3. TBLC.PK (TIMBERLINE RES) --in Cour d'Alene
  4. TUO.V TEUTF.PK (TEUTON RES)     --Near Eskay Creek  
  5. * AUN.V AUNFF.PK (AURCANA CORP)
  6. ASLM.PK (AMER SILVER MINI)  -- In Cour d'Alene
  7. PCM.V PAOCF.PK (PAC COMOX RES)
  8. BGS.V BLDGF.PK (BALLAD GLD SLVR)
  9. * GRG.V (GOLDEN ARROW RESC)          IMR.V spin-off. 35 properties
  10. MTB.V (Mountain Boy Minerals Ltd) 
  11. BBR.V BBRRF.PK (BRETT RES)   
  12. CLZ.V (Canasil Resources Inc)
  13. LSM.V LASCF.PK (Langis Silver & Cobalt Mining Co Ltd)
  14. CBP.V CPBMF.PK (CONS PAC BAY MIN)
* = I own shares. 
There are expanded profiles on each company, way below.  But before I get to that, let me discuss my methodology, and the problems with it.

See the number above, listed after each company in the first list?  That number represents the number of silver ounces in the ground that you get when you buy an ounce of silver's worth of stock.  The number treats all reported ounces in the ground as equal, however, they are NOT EQUAL.  Some ounces in the ground are more certain and others are more speculative.  Some are higher grades, some are lower grades.  Some have been well drilled, others have less drill results.  They range from most certain to least certain such as: "proven & probable reserves," and then, "measured, indicated, or inferred resources."   A reserve has a feasibility study produced for it.  A resource, does not.

Here's the math on how I calculate that one number.  First, I get a market cap by multiplying the fully diluted shares (which bullishly assumes all options and warrants will be exercised and converted into outstanding shares) by the share price in U.S. dollars.  Next, I divide that by the silver price, so the market cap is denominated in terms of silver ounces.  Then, I divide the ounces in the ground by the market cap as denominated in silver.  This produces the single number of how many ounces of silver in the ground you are buying when you give up one ounce of silver in your hand, for shares of stock, instead.  This way, you can not only compare silver stocks to each other, you can compare them to silver directly.  This also helps people in other nations, using other currencies, to value these companies.

This valuation does not include zinc, or copper, or lead, but it does include gold at a 1:10 ratio of gold:silver.  At goldsheetlinks.com, they add 100% of proven & probable reserves, but only 70% of measured & indicated resources, and only 50% of inferred resources.  I don't do that.  I count them as all the same.

I believe that the two most important numbers that a silver mining company can report are the resources in the ground, and the number of their fully diluted shares. Of course, there is much more to a mining company than that, but without those numbers, it is extremely difficult to even start an evaluation.  This report highlights those key numbers, where possible.  If you think those numbers are also important, please email the executives of the mining companies you own, and ask them to make sure their numbers are clearly published at their websites.

Problems with my methodology:  My methodology assumes that the more ounces in the ground, is, in theory, best, given that I expect much higher silver prices.  However, unless the price of silver really moves much higher, my methodology may not be the best one.  If silver does really move up very high in value as compared to today, then I expect my methodology to be one of the best predictors of rising stock values, because more ounces in the ground mean more leverage to rising silver prices.  However, the companies with greater leverage to the upside usually also tend to have greater leverage to the downside, and thus, tend to be more volitile.  

Other factors to consider that the single number produced by my methodology does not:  A resource calculation number does not tell you the entire picture about a company.  The resource calculation number is designed as a starting place for further research.  Other very important considerations are as follows:  How much existing mining infrastructure is in place?  The more the better, so think of it as a "bonus".  How much cash does the comapany have on hand, and what is their burn rate?  What is the management's attitude towards money, silver, hedging, debt, and dilution?  This is why I list "additional comments" in the company profiles, below.

I don't consider grade to be too important (although I list it when I can), because I consider the cost to mine to be the more important consideration.  The "cost to mine" is determined in a feasibility study, which is the last thing produced before trying to raise money for final construction of a mine.  And usually, they cannot even count silver as a resource unless it is at least somewhat feasable to mine at today's prices for silver.  And this is why I count all the ounces as the same.  If a low grade ore can be mined more cheaply, and if a higher grade ore costs more to extract, and if it has to be somewhat economically feasible even at these low silver prices to be counted, it balances out quite nicely.

My methodology is the natural result of my study of the silver market and my religious views.  To read about my religious views, see my other web site, bibleprophesy.org There are two essays near the top of the page that explain why I believe the entire world will return to using gold and silver as money again before the end times.  See Ezekiel 38.  Also, see my essay: Biblical Guidelines for Managing your Money

See my
June 18, 2004 article: I'm insanely bullish on silver.

To quickly "tab" down to the company you are interested in, note the symbol. Then hit "control-F" to "FIND" the symbol below.
___________
If I use a word you don't understand and is not listed in the dictionary at www.m-w.com you can look up the meaning at http://investorwords.com/


WEEKLY COMMENTARY (All new in this section):  

To hear my hour long radio show on the internet from 2-12, click here:
http://archives.warpradio.com/btr/EquityStrategies/021222.MP3

------------------------

I was interviewed by Dave Forest of Kitcocasey.com this week.  See the article here: (Text follows below)
What’s Moving the Silver Market?

For many investors, the silver market is a mysterious realm. While Bloomberg and Marketwatch devote regular (albeit sparing) coverage to gold, they seldom even mention silver. On the odd occasion that they do, it’s only to note how much the price rose or fell, with little consideration given as to what factors are moving the market.

But lately there’s been reason to wonder what’s driving silver, given the metal’s $1 run-up this month. It’s generally held that silver moves with the gold price, but a look at the charts reveals that this is far from an exact correlation. Silver gained 15 percent between February 8 and 22, while gold only moved 5 percent. And, at times, the silver price dropped dramatically while gold was rising, or, conversely, took off without any apparent up-tick in the gold price.

Noting this, we thought it would be informative – and potentially profitable – to seek an expert opinion on what beats the heart of the silver market. To get such a perspective, we caught up with Jason Hommel, silver trader and author of the Silver Stock Report, a monthly newsletter for silver investors. True to form, we found Jason in the middle of selling silver at the shop of well-known dealer Burt Blumert. He took a few moments between trades to enlighten us on the things that move the price of gold’s “little brother”.

As Jason told us, one of the main factors influencing the silver price is the small size of the market. Various sources estimate that there are only a few hundred million ounces of silver actively being traded around the world (this of course, doesn’t include the large amount of silver tied up in jewelry and silverware). By contrast, conservative estimates of global monetary gold supply are in the neighborhood of 2.5 billion ounces, meaning that the silver market is likely at least 10-fold smaller than gold. “Because the silver market is so small,” Jason noted, “a mere 1 million ounces can move the price. All you need is one multi-millionaire saying, ‘You know what? I think it’s time to buy a million ounces.’” How much might this run up the price? “A few pennies,” he told us.

But even such a seemingly small gain can be meaningful for a commodity that has sold for the last 20 years mainly in the 3 to 8 dollar range – between 50 and 140 times cheaper than gold. Jason turned us over to Burt, who elaborated on why individual buyers are attracted to silver. “They say things like, it’s the poor man’s gold,” he said. “You get more bang for your buck. Silver could go all the way up to $9 very fast; for gold to gain that much, percentage-wise, it probably won’t happen as quickly.” In fact, silver going to $9/oz would be the same percentage gain as gold going to about $550/oz. “We have an old joke,” Burt concluded, “that in the old days you needed to spend $10,000 in silver to get a hernia. Today, with the price so low, you can get one for half price.”

The potential for those kind of gains, however, is attracting investors other than just individual silver bugs. There are a considerable number of silver futures traders who also play a major role in moving the price. “The futures guys are looking for leverage and they’re making short-term bets,” Jason told us. “They’re not really buying silver – around 99 percent of futures contracts never go to delivery. Those people are basically making a bet on what the price is going to do and then taking the profits in paper dollars.”

Betting on the silver price is also a favorite past-time of commercial banks. Such institutions generally bet against silver, taking short positions that yield big margins if the silver price stays the same or drops. “If the commercials increase their shorts significantly,” Jason noted, “that could explain a downward movement in the price.” But the commercials can also drive the price up. At some point they have to buy back silver to close out their short positions, which gives the price a boost. “Once they realize the price isn’t going any lower,” Jason added, “they start buying back. It might be their buying that’s pushed the price back up to the $7 range this month.”

Yes, I sell silver on occasion.  Why?  Because I use silver as money.  It is my "store" of money, and I sell it as I need money, just as you would probably hold onto your dollars, and exchange them for pesos at the last minute when shopping in Mexico.

Since in the interview, I was speaking off the top of my head, I would like to "do the math" and clarify one point.

First, what is the relative size of the gold and silver markets?  It is estimated that the gold mines produce 2500 tonnes, and that 5000 tonnes is purchased each year.   Multiplied by the price of $430, the dollar numbers are as follows:
5000 tonnes x 32152 oz/tonne x $430/oz. = $69 billion

It is also estimated that the silver mines produce about 600 million oz., while about 900 million oz. is consumed each year. 900 million oz. x $7/oz. = $6.3 billion.

So, the transaction volume of the silver market is about 1/10th that of gold.  But what about total bullion available?

It is estimated that 95% of all gold mined in history is still with us.  It is estimated that this is 145,000 tonnes.  95% is 138,000 tonnes x 32152oz/tonne x $430/oz. = $1.9 trillion.

It is also estimated that there is perhaps a maximum of 600 million oz. of silver left available, since the rest has been consumed by industry.  600 mil oz. x $7/oz. = $4.2 billion. 

Now, 1900 billion / 4.2 billion = 452.  Thus, the gold market may really be 452 times bigger than the silver market. 

Second, I was trying to say in the interview that if $1 million dollars was spent on silver, it would move the price a few pennies.  If a million ounces was purchased, it would probably move the price a few dimes.

-----------------------------

Google.com has a new feature.  Google Answers!  You can ask any question you want, and researchers will scan the internet, and look for your answer!  You also specify the price you are willing to pay, to help "motivate" the researchers.

I asked several questions to help me with my "money chart".  Please take a look at the updated money chart this week. 

I have had a very tough time with one particular question, and so I asked:

What is the...
Total value of all paper money in the entire world?

This is a more difficult question.  There may be several different
ways to answer it.  For example, US dollars--how do you measure?  The
U.S. has several different ways, from "cash and currency in
circulation", to including the value of all checking accounts, to
including savings accounts, to including short term bonds, and money
market accounts.  M3 is widely regarded as the best measure for the
U.S.  Source: http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h6/Current/

Question:  Is there a world wide equivalent of M3?  Who would even
keep track?  The UN?  How would you add in nations like China, who may
not know or release accurate records?

The best answers may well be just wild estimates; guesses.  I'll take
that.  I'd like the best guess, and I'd like at least three sources.
Any years from 2003 forward are acceptable.

Within a day, I received the answer to my question, as follows:
You are right to wonder about the availability of records in much of
the world. Even the government of many of these nations may not know
the money supply. The only organization able to track such things is
the World Bank. But while they track many pieces of financial data,
they do not track the money supply. However, I have come up with one
way to estimate the world money supply using reliable data. I’m going
to get the money supplies of large economic powers and extrapolate
them into a world money supply based on their combined control of the
world economy.


According to the Federal Reserve, here are the M1, M2, and M3 money
supplies as of January.

M1 - $1.353 trillion
M2 - $6.430 trillion
M3 – $9.467 trillion

Obviously, you’re familiar with these numbers. Unfortunately, the M3
money supply is really impossible to calculate in many countries. The
European Central Bank keeps similar statistics, however. According to
the ECB ( HYPERLINK "http://www.ecb.int/press/pdf/md/md0412.pdf"
http://www.ecb.int/press/pdf/md/md0412.pdf), the M3 money supply for
the European Common Market was 6.529 trillion euros at the end of
December, the latest month for which data is available.

Based on the Feb. 23 spot exchange rate of $1.3211 per euro, the
European M3 money supply is $8.625 trillion in U.S. dollars. European
M2 is quite similar to the American M2. In U.S. dollars, the European
M2 is $7.352 trillion.

This article in the International Herald Tribune ( HYPERLINK
"http://www.iht.com/articles/2005/02/17/bloomberg/sxbriefs.html"
http://www.iht.com/articles/2005/02/17/bloomberg/sxbriefs.html) lists
the Chinese M2 money supply for January at 25.8 trillion yuan, or $3.1
trillion in U.S. currency. I visited the site of the People’s Bank of
China ( HYPERLINK "http://www.pbc.gov.cn/" http://www.pbc.gov.cn/ - a
useful site) and was not able to find the January 2005 number.
However, I checked out the growth of the money supply in 2004 at
HYPERLINK "http://www.pbc.gov.cn/english/diaochatongji/tongjishuju/gofile.asp?file=2004S14.htm"
http://www.pbc.gov.cn/english/diaochatongji/tongjishuju/gofile.asp?file=2004S14.htm
and determined that the newspaper’s figure is probably correct.

According to the Japanese central bank, the M2 money supply plus CD
balances totaled 700.3 trillion yen at the end of January ( HYPERLINK
"http://www.boj.or.jp/en/stat/stat_f.htm"
http://www.boj.or.jp/en/stat/stat_f.htm). Assuming an exchange rate of
104.89 yen per dollar, the Japanese money supply was $6.677 trillion.

Let’s recap:

M2 money supply:

U.S. $6.430 trillion.
EU $7.352 trillion.
China $3.1 trillion.
Japan $6.677 trillion.

While the definitions of the M2 money supply differ from country to
country, they are fairly similar. And that’s going to have to be good
enough, because there is no way to effectively strip out portions of
the numbers provided by the government, at least not without a team of
auditors with extremely high security clearances.

I have no idea about the money supply of Bangladesh or Botswana, but
the economies above represent the four largest economic forces in the
world. We could visit the central banks of a dozen countries to
further refine our estimate, but the four numbers listed above should
be sufficient for our purposes.

According to the CIA Factbook ( HYPERLINK
"http://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook/geos/xx.html#Econ"
http://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook/geos/xx.html#Econ) the
world’s gross domestic product was estimated at $51.48 trillion in
2003. In 2000, the CIA estimate was 2000 was $43.6 trillion. That
makes for an annualized growth rate of 5.69% from 200, through 2003.
Let’s assume a similar growth rate for 2004, and the estimated world
domestic product is $54.4 trillion.

We're going to determine the percentage of the world domestic product
that comes from the four powerhouses above. We'll use that percentage
to extrapolate the money supply for the world. Money supply tends to
be highly correlated with GDP, but the ratio of money supply to GDP
varies greatly from nation to nation, depending on their growth rates
and the composition of their economies.

However, while differences in growth rates and economic maturity of
developing nations will make future predictions very difficult, what
we’re doing is taking a snapshot of the global economy at a particular
moment in time. It's an inexact estimate, but one we can defend
logically and economically.

So, here is the GDP:

* Japan's GDP as of December 2004 was $530.8 trillion yen, or $5.061
trillion in U.S. currency.
* The U.S. GDP in the December quarter was $10.976 trillion.
* The EU reports GDP by quarter
(http://www.ecb.int/stats/prices/accounts/html/index.en.html#data),
with the latest figure available being the September 2004 quarter. The
trailing 12-month GDP for the EU is 7.470 billion euros, or $9.868
trillion in U.S. currency.
* China's GDP was $1.65 trillion for 2004
(http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/english/doc/2005-01/25/content_412097.htm)

I collected the Japan and U.S. GDPs from a proprietary database,
though they must be available on the Internet. I just grabbed them
from my database because it was faster.

The U.S., European Union, China, and Japan combine to generate about
$27.555 trillion in gross domestic product, which represents 50.65% of
the world domestic product.

For estimation purposes, we'll assume they also control 50.65% of the
world money supply. The four regions combine for an M2 money supply of
$23.559 trillion. That translates to a world money supply of $46.513
trillion.

V


Other interesting links:

Economists’ estimates of the growth of the Chinese money supply.
HYPERLINK "http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2005-01/06/content_2421706.htm"
http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2005-01/06/content_2421706.htm

Japan Central Bank page.
HYPERLINK "http://www.boj.or.jp/en/" http://www.boj.or.jp/en/

Financial data for central governments.
http://www.worldbank.org/data/wdi2004/pdfs/Table4_11.pdf
-----------------------------------------

And so, I paid about $400 for several answers to a few questions that now appear in my "money chart", that is now significantly updated.  Make sure you take at look at the 'money chart'.

------------------------

For several years, I've read every bit of analysis on silver that I can find.  I have never encountered a single silver bearish argument that I thought was rational.  I've read many arguments and reasons given that attempt to say that silver may not be a good investment, but as I said, not a single rational reason.

Just over a month ago, there was an article by Joel Bainerman on 01/10/2005, "Is gold really such a good investment?" And at least 3 of my readers have asked me to comment on his bearish views for the metals, because they either did not understand Joel, or they wanted to see if I could refute him.  In his article, Joel wonders whether Euros would have been a better investment than gold.  He says that since he is not an economist, he will not present any graphs.  Well, he should have looked at one, because a graph can answer his question.  To determine whether gold or a currency performed better over time in the past, you merely need to look at a chart that compares the currency in terms of gold.  There are many such charts at the very bottom of kitco.com  You can see how well gold performed via Euros, via the Yen, and 13 different currencies. 

There are basically two kinds of analysis in the world.  Analysis that looks at a chart to determine past price performance (typically called technical analysis), and analysis that attempts to determine future price performance--typically called fundamental analysis.

Unfortunately, the most interesting currency/gold price chart that I know of, does not appear at kitco.  This is the yen/gold chart that extends more than 30 years into the past.

Sharelynx has a yen/gold chart, and it's beautiful.  With his permission, here it is:


http://www.sharelynx.com/

http://www.sharelynx.com/ has a lot of great gold charts--charts on everything you could imagine! 

Just look at the steep slope of the yen/gold curve in '79-'80!  It's like a total wall! 

The yen/gold chart shows that the high price for gold, in yen, in 1980, was over 160,000 yen/oz.  Today, the number is 45,624 yen/oz.  The point is that the prior yen price was 3.5 times greater than today.

The U.S. prices are $850 and $430, so the U.S. dollar 1980 price is only 1.97 times greater than today. 

Now, another point is that because the U.S. has increased M3 substantially since 1980, we can expect our gold price to rise well above $850/oz., by about the same factor as the increase in M3.   In my very first article at gold-eagle in June 2000, I wrote about this.  M3 has risen from $1.8 trillion in 1980, to $9.5 trillion today.  That's an increase of 5.2 times.  Thus, if we expect gold to hit it's former high price, the inflation adjusted gold price is now $850 x 5.2 = $4486/oz.

Similarly, but more dramatically, there have also been increases in Japanese Yen since 1980!  I believe they have inflated their own currency more than we have inflated ours.  Their gold price chart shows a very dramatic and very steep slope for 1980.  Furthermore, in 2002, when we were often reading about the end of the FDIC-type insurance on Japanese bank accounts, we saw the Japanese buying more and more gold in a gold market that was rising in terms of Yen.  I believe we will see the Japanese Yen gold price rise by a factor of 3.5 times to exceed the prior high, and also by another factor greater than 5.2 times, due to the continued inflation of the Yen.  This means a Yen price of 45,624 yen x 3.5 x 5.2, which would be a price of 830,000 yen/oz. gold, which is a rise 18 times greater than today.

Thus, the Yen is no alternative to dollars.  Both will fail.  And similarly, the Euro is no better.

-----------------------

My commentary last week on the liberty dollar upset about 3 people.  To one such email to me, I responded, but it bounced.  But I think it provides a good look at why our nation has gone so wrong for so long.  So many so-called Christians, it seems, just can't stand arguing and controversy, and so they avoid denouncing the wrongs that we should have been denouncing for generations! So, this man wrote to me, and I responded within his letter, as follows: (my comments are preceded by "Jason responded:")
Jason,

Christianity has already been dragged through the streets as a legalistic,
judgemental religion - which is what it has become in the 2,000 years since
Christ died - tens of thousands of denominations prove it's faulty
structure.
Jason responded: Really?  I thought the tens of thousands of denominations prove it's solid structure, since it cannot be infiltrated or torn down.  As each group tries to follow Jesus only, it becomes impossible for any one man to lead the whole group astray.

In fact, the splintering of religious groups is a lot like the free market place.  The free market is made up of many people, each judging for themselves what to sell at market and what to buy.  That is a much better way of living, than having all buying and selling decisions made by one top down structure like communism or government planning.
If anything, the splintering of Christianity proves it is of God, and is a resounding success!
 Just another religion among other world religions.  I consider
myself a passionate follower of Jesus, but have disassociated myself with
the label "Christian" for the very reason that today people run away from
Christianity, rather than flock to it as when Jesus walked on this earth.
As a follower of Jesus I was hoping I could see less self-righteousness "I'm
right, you're wrong" in your responses.  It's a real turn off to people who
are sincere in what they are doing, and especially to people who already
have written off Christianity.

You say: "I'm troubled on whether he will even be saved.  I fear he is one
of those men who thinks they will be saved, but to whom Jesus will say, "I
never knew you", as he did in Matthew 7 and Matthew 25."

WOW! I am absolutely floored.  You are TROUBLED?  You don't even know him,
let alone care for him.
Jason responded:  Keep your false accusations to yourself.  You will be held accountable to God for what you say.  How can you judge my heart?  Are you even qualified to really know whether I care for sinners?  What is my ministry, if you even know?  I preach to all sinners who use Federal Reserve Notes (as do I).
 If you did care for him, you would not publicly
make him look like a thief and a liar, the way the pharisee's did to the
sinners of their time.
Jason responded:  Really?  Is that your standard or the Bibles?  And why does the Bible say to rebuke a man publicly if you think it is wrong?

1 Timothy 5:20  Them that sin rebuke before all, that others also may fear.

Not only does the Bible tell us to rebuke people publicly, but it even gives the reason: "that others also may fear"!

Not only that, but the men from libertydollar.org ASKED ME to take it public!  What right do you have to tell both of us to keep the discussion private????
 You FEAR he is one of those men who won't be saved?
Jason, just listen to yourself!  Luke 18:11-14 comes to my mind when I read
crap like that coming from other "Christians".
Jason responded:  As busy as I am I always take the time to listen to see whether or not I'm being chastened by the Lord.  After all, when busy, it can be easy to forget the laws of God, so I looked up Luke 18.  Sir, may I suggest that you have put the wrong person in the role of the self-justifying Pharisee?  I'm the one who wrote:

Yes, I do have "in my wallet/bag", and in my house, diverse weights; a just and an unjust.  I have silver and paper Federal Reserve Notes.  But at least I'm aware of my guilt on a daily basis, which allows me the ability to pray for forgiveness and to try to repent as I offer people the just weight as often as I can.  I expect that the day will come, in my lifetime, that I will never have to have an unjust weight and measure, not in my wallet and not in my house.  That will be a glorious day that I eagerly look forward to. Doesn't that show that I'm like the sinner who said in Luke:

13"But the tax collector, standing some distance away, was even unwilling to lift up his eyes to heaven, but was beating his breast, saying, 'God, be merciful to me, the sinner!'

I never once claimed that I'm not a sinner, and that all my actions are pure and justified.
On the contrary, that is the entire tone of my opponent, who said that their money was not as sinful as the Federal Reserve money.  Their attitude was the exact attitude of the Pharisees who said in Luke:

  11"The Pharisee stood and was praying this to himself: 'God, I thank You that I am not like other people: swindlers, unjust, adulterers, or even like this tax collector.
 How do you think all the
sincere, God following, hard working, under-priviledged Christians feel
after reading that you rent and have no mortgage, and have payed off your
car? Kind of gives them a lump in their throat, wondering if they are living
in sin by having a car loan.
Jason responded:  How do I think they will feel?  I hope they are convinced of their sins, and that they will feel guilty!

Because they ARE living in sin by having a car loan!  And people need this to be pointed out to them if they are to avoid the trap of debt, and bad consequences of such sins!  I've written entire articles explaining the Bible's stance on usury, you can look it up at silverstockreport.com
Freedom from Usury - 23 Jan 2004 <http://news.silverseek.com/GoldIsMoney/1074867753.php>
Usury Enslaves - 19 Jan 2004 <http://www.silverstockreport.com/essays/Usury_Enslaves.html>

The Bible says that usurers are extortioners, and that the borrower is the servant to the lender.  It also says we ought not to sell ourselves into slavery, since we have been set free by Jesus.  Now, if Jesus sets us free, and if we indebt ourselves, then we have made a mockery of, and spit upon, what he has done for us, and yes, we have turned our back on Jesus if we are debtors!

But I do not say that I'm righteous for having paid in full!  That's just to be expected, I think.  It's not lack of sinning that makes one righteous, it's the repentant heart, the willingness to turn away from sin, and the acceptance of the death of Jesus in our place, and the faith that his resurrection is proof that we, too, can be resurrected if we have faith and a testimony.  My righteous living is just a part of my testimony--that I actually care about what the Bible says!
And then you charge people to view your portfolio activity.  Why charge?
Jason responded:  The Bible is clear on this, too:

1Co 9:7 Who goeth a warfare any time at his own charges? who planteth a vineyard, and eateth not of the fruit thereof? or who feedeth a flock, and eateth not of the milk of the flock?
1Co 9:8 Say I these things as a man? or saith not the law the same also?
1Co 9:9 For it is written in the law of Moses, Thou shalt not muzzle the mouth of the ox that treadeth out the corn. Doth God take care for oxen?
1Co 9:10 Or saith he it altogether for our sakes? For our sakes, no doubt, this is written: that he that ploweth should plow in hope; and that he that thresheth in hope should be partaker of his hope.
1Co 9:11 If we have sown unto you spiritual things, is it a great thing if we shall reap your carnal things?
1Co 9:12 If others be partakers of this power over you, are not we rather? Nevertheless we have not used this power; but suffer all things, lest we should hinder the gospel of Christ.
1Co 9:13 Do ye not know that they which minister about holy things live of the things of the temple? and they which wait at the altar are partakers with the altar?
1Co 9:14 Even so hath the Lord ordained that they which preach the gospel should live of the gospel.
 If
your service is unvieling a corrupt system, don't you think God will provide
the means for you to keep it going without looking for handouts?
Jason responded: And, he has.  I trade my services, and I receive compensation in numerous ways.

We reap what we sow.  What do you sow?

-----------------------------
I truly believe that God is helping to raise up this ministry to be able to reach more and more, and to preach, what I feel, is the most important message to this generation of people:  To repent of debt, usury, fraud, and unjust weights and measures.  I feel these are the greatest sins that exist in our day. 

-----------------------------
I will be happy to send...
a 100 oz.
SILVER BAR...
To whomever sends me the best essay!

Topic:  Silver & Endeavour Silver
Limit:  800 word MINIMUM to 1500 words, MAXIMUM
Deadline:  One Week:  Friday, 7 PM, Pacific time, on March 4th, 2005.  (Use next Friday's closing price in the article.)
Style:  Somewhat like my past essays on companies, such as found here:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/research/hommelndx.html

Expatriate Resources: Silver-Zinc Penny Stock - 09 September 2004
Nevada Pacific Gold - 23 June 2004
Market Perspective & Cabo Mining - 12 February 2004
Sterling Mining - 29 December 2003
Canadian Zinc--Silver Potential - 23 October 2003

Content and organizational layout:  First, introduce the topic with a few paragraphs on "why silver".  Then, introduce the company by covering the share structure (warrants, etc.) & market cap (based on next Friday's close).  Next, cover the company story, plans, management, and developments.  You must focus on fundamentals only.  No technical analysis (no curves or lines on charts).  It is highly recommended that you review the web site, the recent news, the financials, and then call the company if you have any questions, and/or to get the latest "company pitch". Also, include any concerns investors may have in the company.   Be persuasive, show enthusiasm and passion, but not exaggeration.  Either positive or negative is ok.  Get the reader interested enough to keep reading.  Don't say "buy" or "sell", and don't issue any price targets.   Please spell-check and grammar-check your writing, and read it out loud to someone else before sending it. 

Finally, include the company contact information, and then your disclaimer at the end.

SEC (Securities and Exchange Commission) Disclaimer Rules: (No lying & no fraud!) You MUST include whether or not you own shares in the company featured, and whether or not you have been paid by the company, or work for the company.   If your immediate nuclear family members or household own shares, or work for the company, that counts, and you need to disclose that, as well.

Additional Rule:  You must agree to not sell any stock in the company featured for one week following release and publication of the article.

Send your name and address (so I know where to send the silver bar), and whether you would like your name, and/or email address to be attached to the article.  (Honestly, getting your name out there as an analyst who is interested in silver companies at this time may be worth far more than the silver bar--but in this industry, I understand if you would rather remain anonymous, as there is safety in that, too.)

All submissions become the property of myself, Jason Hommel, so that I can send it out in my name as either the author, or co-editor (depending on your preference), and I have the right to edit, change, add to, or delete from any essay, or even combine elements of several essays (even if there is only one winner).

Send plain text, a word file, or html, to: j@silverstockreport.com

Today, I received 18 essays on Silver & IMA.

---------------------------
Silver and IMA Exploration
by Jack Myers and Jason Hommel


More and more people are becoming aware of the growing importance of silver as an investment vehicle.  The fundamentals for the shiny metal are excellent and can only get better.  The key?  Supply and demand.  Annual mine supply is just under 600 million ounces while annual demand is almost 900 million ounces, and almost all of that demand is from industry at 40%, jewelry at 30%, or photography at 25% of annual demand.  Investment demand is less than 5% of annual demand, and that is poised to change due to the growing awareness of the silver shortage.  Why is silver in short supply?

Silver is the greatest conductor of electricity known to man, and so it has been used in virtually every electrical device ever created.  Since the end of World War II, the United States consumed about 7/10ths of an ounce of silver per person.  Most of the silver ever produced in human history has been consumed, and so, now above ground silver is more rare than gold.

Of course, in a world increasingly awash in devalued paper currencies and debt, silver’s most important use of all may be its historic role as real money.  When the train inevitably starts to come off the troubled economic track, silver will once again serve as a tried-and-true monetary refuge. Ultimately, silver is a proven store of value.

However, despite its many strategic uses, silver incredibly finds itself in a growing supply deficit.  That’s because once-enormous above-ground stockpiles have been drawn down to dangerously low levels.  More silver has been used than produced in the last sixteen (now going on seventeen) years!  Sixty years ago, during the bygone era of silver coinage, billions of ounces of Ag were kept in storage.  Today these immense stores are nearly gone.  For the first time in memory the U.S. Mint is buying silver in the open marketplace to produce its yearly supply of Silver Eagle coins.  Today’s spot price is $7.26.  During 1979-1980, the oil baron Hunt Brothers and their Middle-eastern friends conspired to corner the world’s lucrative silver market.  They nearly succeeded, driving the spot price to $50 in the process.  Today's inflation-adjusted price of the former peak would be well north of $150 to $250/oz.  The difference today is that above-ground supplies have gotten much smaller, and fewer mines are producing silver as their primary metal.  China is consuming all commodities — silver included — at a voracious rate, and the global financial system is drowning in an ocean of paper.  It’s not question of whether the silver price is going to explode, but when. 

Many silver stocks in exploration companies stand to explode in price to an even greater degree due to the leverage they offer the silver investor.  Exploration companies also can explode in price as they create wealth through the process of discovery.   IMA Exploration is one company that deserves a closer look.

Mining people are continually on the lookout for the next “elephant” — the colloquial term for a company-making mineral deposit of gargantuan proportions.  The overwhelming majority of outfits never find such an increasingly elusive prize.  However, one company . . . IMA Exploration (IMR-TSX.V, IMXPF-OTC.BB), recently bagged a certifiable silver “elephant” in the Patagonia region of Argentina.  At a whopping 268 million indicated ounces of silver and still growing, the question remains, just how big of an ore body has IMA discovered?

To date, the raw numbers are truly impressive.  And with nearly every turn of the drill, IMA is adding more metal to its already stunning totals.  IMA’s “Navidad” property is vast, its geology rich and complex.  Multiple styles of mineralization occur along a several-kilometer trend.  There’s copper, lead, and silver — so, so much silver.  Bulk, lower-grade tonnage interspersed with dazzling intercepts of bonanza-grade mineralization.

Some are calling Navidad the hottest new silver deposit anywhere on the planet.  So far, Navidad has lived up to this exalted billing.

    Highlights include:

-- 80.8 million tons at 103 g/t silver and 1.45% lead using a 50 g/t silver equivalent cut-off.

-- 207 million indicated ounces of silver (Ag) at Galena Hill, “ground zero” at Navidad.  Plus over one million tons of lead and another 36 million “inferred” ounces of the precious metal.

-- 61 million oz. Ag at nearby “Navidad Hill” and the “connector” zone that links Navidad Hill to Galena Hill.  One intersection boasted an astounding 1,165 grams of silver per ton over 28 meters.

-- A more recent “blind” discovery at Calcite Hill that yielded a 72-meter intersection with a respectable 202 g/t Ag.

-- The new “Sector Zeta” and “Loma de la Plata” zones.  Channel samples from Sector Zeta have returned in excess of 1% copper and 100 g/t silver while Loma de la Plata shows in excess of 200 to 400 g/t Ag over more than 50 meters.  Drilling has yet to begin.

Basically, Navidad contains some seriously rich rock. One drill result was 35.8 m of 2,850 g/t of silver.  That's about 92 ounces/tonne of silver over 117 feet!  At $7.26/oz., that rock is worth $668/tonne!    And most of IMA's silver is close to surface, and will thus likely be mined by the cheaper open-pit method, that can sometimes be profitable when mining rock worth about $30/tonne!  (This explains why the cut-off grade when determining resources is as low as 103g/tonne or 3.3 oz./ tonne.)  One IMA geologist stated that he thought Navidad was much more than a potential mine:  it was a mining district!

To date, the current resource calculation is as follows:  total indicated resources are 271 million ounces of silver, and an additional 36 million ounces inferred, for a total of 307 million ounces of silver.  Those numbers are 43-101 compliant.  These numbers will likely continue to grow significantly over the next several years as drilling the district continues year round due to the mild climate.

Conveniently located near one of Argentina’s major highways, Navidad presents no major infrastructure problems. It’s the kind of wealth-generating property mining giants the world over are scrambling to find — or buy out at increasingly inflated prices.  Majors today are involved in a strategy of merger mania as the quickest way to grow their depleted property portfolios.  And Barrick Gold is already a major shareholder in IMA.

One way to judge the quality of the project is to look at the quality of the people the project attracts.  On Feb. 17th 2005, IMA announced the appointment of Eng. Augusto Baertl to be responsible for the development of IMA's 100% owned Navidad silver deposit in Argentina. As the former President of Compañia Minera Antamina, Mr. Baertl developed Antamina, which involved a capital investment of US $2.2 Billion. Antamina was operational ahead of schedule, under budget and in strict compliance with international social and environmental standards.

IMA is headed up by Joseph Grosso, an old pro in the search for Latin American resources.  Mr. Grosso’s family ties and connections in Argentina gave him the inside track on cherry-picking the country’s premier properties in the early 1990s.  That’s when Buenos Aires finally gave the go-ahead for international mining ventures to do business in their highly prospective and under-explored provinces.

IMA currently has just over 44 million shares outstanding — 49 million shares fully diluted when all warrants and options are considered.  If all warrants and stock options are exercised, it would bring in about $12 million Cdn.  Management owns 15-17% of this debt-free company.  With a February 25th closing price of $3.88 Cdn, the market cap for this stock is a very reasonable $154 million in U.S. dollars.

At current share prices, the cost to investors for the ounces in the ground, may be calculated as follows: $154 million market cap / 307 mil oz. = $.57/oz.  Or, if the exploration potential of IMA is up to a billion ounces of silver, then perhaps the following may be more accurate:  $154 million market cap / 1000 mil oz. = $.15/oz.  Expressed another way, you may be getting title from between 13 to 47 ounces in the ground, for one ounce of silver's worth of stock.  Meaning, if you spend the equivalent of $7.26 on stock, you are buying title to 13 to 47 ounces of silver in the ground.

Why so reasonably priced?  After news of the initial discovery at Navidad, another Canadian miner filed a “nuisance” suit alleging that IMA used its proprietary geologic data to zero in on Navidad.  The dispute centers around the bid process for the Calcatreau gold property in Argentina, now wholly owned by Aquiline Resources, the plaintiff in the suit against IMA.  IMA, along with Aquiline, was a bidder for Calcatreau, and was shown confidential data for the purposes of placing a valuation on Calcatreau.  All parties signed confidentiality agreements that excluded them from exploring and staking ground within some three kilometers of Calcatreau.  Navidad, a silver-lead property, lies approximately 42 kilometers from Calcatreau, a gold property.  Many have already dismissed Aquiline’s claims entirely.  The CEO of Aquiline, also a principal in other mining ventures, has earned a reputation as something of a serial litigant, and is currently involved in a separate mining lawsuit in Australia.  Meanwhile, shares of IMA will continue to trade at a discount until the matter can be cleared.  A court hearing is scheduled in British Columbia in October 2005.

Expect the suit to be settled in IMA’s favor — eventually.  If Aquiline had the same information as IMA, why didn’t they stake Navidad?  Or mining giant Newmont, which had previously owned Calcatreau and generated the proprietary data purchased by Aquiline?  When the truth is revealed, it will show that IMA was actively exploring the Chubut province in Patagonia and was already zeroing in on Navidad at the time they kicked the tires at Calcatreau.

“There is absolutely nothing to the claim,” CEO Grosso states flatly.

To summarize, no investment today offers the explosive upside and limited downside of silver.  And very few publicly traded silver companies offer the kind of extreme leverage, proven deposit growth, and blue-sky potential of IMA Exploration. 

Stock prices go up and down, and past performance is neither an indicator, nor counter-indicator, of future performance.  The information in this essay has been gathered from many sources that are believed to be reliable.  No guarantees are being made that this information is reliable.  All potential investors are encouraged to contact IMA to verify all important information. 

For more information and to get on IMA’s mailing list, contact the company at info@imaexploration.com, and/or visit their web site at http://www.imaexploration.com.  You can also call the company toll-free at 1-800-901-0058.  Mr. Sean Hurd is the person in charge of investor relations — he’ll be glad to hear from you.

Jack Myers is a seasoned investor in the junior mining sector. Myers has not been paid by IMA Exploration for producing this article, nor does he work for the company.  He does own shares in IMA Exploration, as well as shares in IMA’s sister company Golden Arrow Resources (GRG-TSX.V), a grassroots explorer which was spun off from IMA in 2004.  Mr. Myers works as a technical writer in Valley Forge, PA.  He can be contacted at jackmyers@peoplepc.com.

Jason Hommel sponsored the writing of this essay by offering to give a 100 oz. silver bar to whomever could write the best essay on silver and IMA Exploration.  Jason edited the essay, and added a few bits of information that was researched and highlighted in a total of 18 essays submitted.  Jason also owns shares in IMA Exploration, and Golden Arrow, and has not been paid by either company to write this article. Jason Hommel writes a weekly silver stock report that covers the market caps of about 80 silver stocks.  See silverstockreport.com


--------------

If you want to know where my money is, what stocks I own, and in what proportion, please sign up at silverstockreport.com to the "look at my portfolio".

For all goldismoney.com subscribers, please send a copy of your receipt (or a past copy of the "look at my portfolio") to support@silverstockreport.com Only support@silverstockreport.com can issue you passwords.  I cannot.   Prior customers can also get a quick copy of the latest report if you email your receipt, (or a past copy of the "look at my portfolio") to me here: j@silverstockreport.com (Neither I, nor my new support staff, has access to the prior goldismoney customer database, so please send your prior email recepts, or a past issue.)

-----------------------
If you feel you may have missed an email from me, you can find the archives from my email signup page

The email sign up page:
http://www.silverstockreport.com/cgi-bin/dada/mail.cgi
The archive of past emails:
http://www.silverstockreport.com/cgi-bin/dada/mail.cgi?f=list&l=ssr

------------------------

My Conference Schedule:

I will be attending:
1. The PDAC in March 6-9 http://www.pdac.ca/ --I will not be speaking, just attending.
2.  The gold show in Chicago in the spring--2x a year. --I will be on a panel
3.  The 4 annual Cambridge House shows (I usually speak on silver for a 1/2 hour, both days, and maybe a panel)... see www.goldshow.ca  The next is the Calgary Resource Investment Conference, April 10 & 11
4.  The show in Idaho again, the 3rd Silver Summit. --I'll be speaking.
5.  GATA's show in the fall.


----------------
To read about my religious views, see my other web site, bibleprophesy.org There are two essays near the top of the page that explain why I believe the entire world will return to using gold and silver as money again before the end times.  See Ezekiel 38.  Also, see my essay: Biblical Guidelines for Managing your Money
----------------

Because I have a market reach, I also receive a lot of tips about silver stocks.  And thus, I believe I may have invested in some of the best ones that came my way.  If you believe I may have an edge based on my work and unique position... then the best way for me to share this with you is to is tell you more precisely where I put my money.  It's not investment advice.  I offer a monthly "look at my portfolio".   I do not issue recommendations, and I don't list number of shares or the size of my portfolio, but I will show the top investments in my portfolio, by rank, updated monthly.  It includes which stocks are 9% and more of my portfolio, those between 9% and 6%, under 6%, under 3%, and under 1%.

To order, visit: silverstockreport.com
Price:  Monthly rebilling at $39.95. --most convenient, best customer service
Customer Service:  http://www.silverstockreport.com/customerservice.htm
Toll Free Customer Service Hotline: 800-370-4154

-----------------

Private Placement Opportunities for Sophisticated/Accredited investors: (This is not a solicitation for any stock, and I'm not brokering any securities) To be added to my PP email list, sign up at http://www.silverstockreport.com/cgi-bin/dada/mail.cgi
Just select the second list from the drop down menu.

-------------------

2 Silver Stock Funds

1.  Richard Greene, thundercapital.com $100,000 minimum, 2 year hold, sophisticated/accredited investors only.  Will use margin, and/or short sell.

2.  Philip Judge or Simon Heapes, anglofareast.com  Less than $5000 minimum?  No margin or shortselling.

-------------------
General Commentary on Silver (slightly modified from last week):

Now, I think it's time that the silver community started a letter writing campaign to the editors of newspapers around the world, to tell them about silver. 

Here is a sample letter:

May 21, 2004

Dear Editor,

I'm a silver investor.  I believe paper money is fraudulent.  There is over 30 trillion dollars, U.S., worth of bonds in the world, but less than 2 trillion dollars worth of gold, according to gold.org. 

As of April, 2004, the size of M3, the money in U.S. banks, has reached 9.1 trillion dollars, yet due to fractional reserve banking, the total of U.S. currency and coin in circulation is only 724 billion dollars as reported by treas.gov.

At silverinstitute.org and cpmgroup.com, they each report that silver has been in a deficit for about 15 years, where world mine supply has been about 500 million ounces, scrap supply about 200 million ounces, and industrial and jewelry demand about 800 million ounces.  The difference, about 100 million ounces, has come from investor and government selling, drawing down reserves of silver.  Known supplies of refined silver are down to about 250 to 600 million ounces.   At the COMEX, they are down to 48 million ounces of silver left that is registered for delivery, which you can see at nymex.com. 

The governments of the world are printing up too much paper money, and the world is running out of real money, silver.  I believe this will lead to the price of silver rising dramatically in value, around the world.

I urge your readers to verify the statistics I have provided, and to make their own decisions.

Sincerely,

Jason Hommel

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I wrote an article:
Miners to Use Silver as Cash - 27 November 2003
Apparantly, I was about 6 months too early in my predictions, but that's ok, I'm a very long term thinker and investor.  I did not miss the mark by too much time, and if you think in terms of decades, I was right on the mark.

There are several companies that are increasingly deciding to hold their cash in the form of silver bullion.  These companies are:

FSR.TO (First Silver Reserve)
SSRI SSO.V (
SILVER STANDARD RSC)
SRLM.PK (
STERLING MINING)
EDR.V EDRGF.PK (ENDEAVOUR SILVER)

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The Silver Valley in Idaho is bringing back the use of silver as money.  A silver one-ounce coin, a "Sterling" to be used as a $10 piece.
http://shoshonenewspress.com/index.asp?Sec=News&str=2869
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For news on the New Hampshire Sound Money Bill, that proposes to use U.S. Treasury minted Silver Eagles and Gold Eagles as money see:  http://www.goldmoneybill.org/

25 Reasons why the Sound Money Bill Must Be Supported
by Jason Hommel

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There are two excellent annual silver surveys that are sponsored by industry.

The survey by silverinstitute.org costs $195, 87 pages.
http://www.silverinstitute.org/wssum03.pdf -- 8 page free summary of last year's reeport.

The survey by cpmgroup.com costs $150, 162 pages.
http://www.cpmgroup.com/SSpress2004.pdf --3 page press release.

The two reports present the case that about 500 million oz. of silver are mined each year, about 200 million oz. of silver comes from scrap, and about 100 million oz. of silver comes from investor dis-hoarding, either by individuals or government sources, in order to meet the annual demand of about 800 million oz. of silver by industry & jewelry.  This is wildly bullish, because investors are net selling more than buying, and I think the potential of investor demand is huge, and can be measured by seeing how much paper money there is in the world.
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Here are two U.S. Government produced reports on silver, containing data on years from 1900 to present, on U.S. & world  production, and U.S. consumption, and U.S. industry & government stockpiles.

Report #1
http://www.goldismoney.com/ssr/USsilver.xls
Report #2
http://www.goldismoney.com/ssr/USsilver2.xls

I evaluated these government produced reports in my silver stock report #36.

In sum, we are running out of silver.  The U.S. government had over 3 billion ounces of silver in 1940, and today, has very little left, or none.

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The Commodities Futures Trading Commission

The CFTC report on the allegations of manipulation in the silver market -- 9 page report
The CFTC report confirmes much of the research above, and almost outlines the bullish case for silver!
--My comments on the CFTC report are in silver stock report #34 & #35

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Silver consumption, per capita, in the U.S. is the same today, in 2004, as it was in 1945.

And what is the per capita consumption of silver in the U.S. today?  5500 tonnes x 32152 = 177 million ounces of silver used per 285 million people.  177 / 285 = .62 oz. silver consumed per year, per person, in the U.S., whether in 1945, or in 2004.  Each person in the U.S. today, on average, uses 6 tenths of an ounce of silver. 
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As the New York Times, January 11, 1859, page 2 said---
"It is well known that the most colossal fortunes the world ever saw have been based on silver mines..."
--quote found by Charles Savoie

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WHERE and HOW to BUY SILVER BULLION
http://www.silverstockreport.com/buybullion.htm

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My 2005-2010 price predictions for gold and silver:
2005: $595/oz. gold,  50:1 ratio = $12/oz. silver
2006: $1011/oz. gold,  30:1 ratio = $34/oz. silver
2007: $1719/oz. gold,   10:1 ratio = $172/oz. silver
2008: $2923/oz. gold,  5:1 ratio = $ 585/oz. silver
2009: $4,969/oz. gold,  1:1 ratio = $4969/oz. silver
2010: $8448/oz. gold, 5:1 ratio = $1698/oz. silver
2011+: infinity dollars/oz. gold, infinity dollars/oz. silver.

I just moved up the years, one each from last year.  The reason why I'm so bullish is the scarcity of silver, and also, I believe one single billionaire could move the price, at any time, to $25/oz.  It would be folly of me to suggest that 2005 should see an average of $8-10/oz. for silver.  It could fly high, starting at any time.

I calculate the gold price rise by guessing that by 2010, M3 will have a "gold-value" like it did in 1980, which is to say, M3 was worth 2 Billion oz. of gold or less.  It also assumes M3 will about triple in that time.  These figures are conservative, because I see no reason that M3 should be valued more than the gold the U.S. actually holds, which is a mere 261 million oz., not billion.  Today, the M3 value is $8870 billion / $425/oz. = 19 billion oz. of gold M3 could buy in theory.  The silver:gold ratio is also a very, very vague guess, reflective of monetary demand chasing silver, which is more scarce than gold in above ground, refined form. I have no idea when the ratio of 15:1 will be exceeded, I'm just totally guessing.  I suppose it could happen this year or next month for all I know.  Of course my real price targets are infinity dollars per oz. for both gold and silver when all is said and done, I just don't know how long that will take, nor what year it will be.  But my point in producing the price predictions is to show my bullishness for silver and gold.

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A great overview on silver: Douglas Kanarowski's 78 Approaching Forces For Higher Silver Prices

See also Douglas Kanarowski's article:  What Impact Will Digital Photography Have on Silver?

Doug's third article is also excellent: Silver -- the next big thing in the global markets? Answering A Few Silver Questions

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See the 600 year silver chart to see how undervalued silver really is:
http://goldinfo.net/silver600.html

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Look at the summary of the world silver survey by GFMS Limited on behalf of The Silver Institute :
http://www.gfms.co.uk/Publications%20Samples/WSS03-summary.pdf

Note, there is virtually no monetary nor investment demand. Note, the 2002 mine production (585 mil oz.) is greatly exceeded by industrial, photo, and jewelry demand. (838 mil oz.).  Note the chart on page five, "Supply from above-ground stocks".

The difference between mine supply and industrial demand was met by a combination of three factors: 1.  Government selling, 2.  Private selling, 3.  Recycling

U.S. government selling is ending, as their stocks have run out, or will run out.  This factor will reverse, because the U.S. government will need silver to continue their coin program, and/or need silver when they wake up and decide they need to replenish their strategic stockpile for domestic security.  Silver is a war material.  China's selling of silver will also likely turn into buying, as China will need silver for continued industrial development, or when they also lose faith in the U.S. dollar.

Private selling has been rapidly shrinking and is now almost ended, and should turn into buying, and become monetary demand.  Monetary demand is everything in the silver supply / demand situation.  It's not now.  Now, it's nothing.  But it will become something incredible, because the dollar is dying.

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The following is a "must read":  Ted Butler's best ever explanation of how silver is manipulated lower than it should be.
http://www.investmentrarities.com/11-04-03.html

Over 3600 people have signed the silver petition to stop the manipulation at the COMEX:
http://www.PetitionOnline.com/comex/

Ted correctly points out that a lower price creates excessive demand from consumers.  However, Ted Butler does not point out, and neglects to mention, that a perpetually low price also creates lack of demand from investors who are "trend investors". 

I think most silver experts over-analyze all the supply and demand factors of the silver market.  No factor is more important than monetary demand.  The force of photographic demand is like a light breeze compared to the hurricane or tornado of monetary demand.  Monetary demand is everything.
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Consider the gold market for a moment:  Even short selling at the COMEX is nothing compared to monetary demand.  The short position most certainly helps to depress the price of gold as the short position is growing larger.  However, it adds fuel to the fire if there is short covering, and thus, it can boost the gold price later.  But the commercial short position on the COMEX is next to nothing compared to the non-reported "over the counter" trading that is done that does not appear on the COMEX.

(Numbers in metric tonnes, 32,152 oz. per tonne.)

870 tonnes -- the paper position at the COMEX, 280,000 contracts for 100 oz. each.
5,000 tonnes -- the official number admitted that the central banks have sold.
15,000 tonnes -- the number GATA research shows that central banks have sold / or leased.
30,000 tonnes -- the number of official central bank gold, minus either the 5000 or 15,000 tonnes.
145,000 tonnes -- all the gold mined in the history of the world.
2,600 tonnes -- annual mine supply
4,000 tonnes -- annual demand

And all of that is nothing compared to the amount of dollars out there that exist that could buy gold. $20 trillion bonds, $9 trillion M3 = $29 Trillion.  A mere 1% is $290 Billion, which, at $500 /oz. is a massive demand of 18,039 tonnes Do you understand what that means?  That means that far, far less than 1% of dollars, in either bonds or M3 can buy gold, because there simply is not that much gold available. 

Long before 1% of U.S. paper dollars tries to buy gold, gold will be going up well over $1000/oz., and silver will be headed up over $50/oz.

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To scare away investors--that is the entire reason gold and silver are manipulated in the first place.  Only the trend investors can be deceived.  The problem is that nearly everyone is a trend investor.  Very few investors understand value.  If people knew the facts and used their brains, the available above-ground refined silver would be gone by tomorrow, and the price would be well over $20-50/oz.  But don't trust me, check the numbers and follow the links:

"The money chart"

      1,000,000,000,000: 1 Trillion dollars
             1,000,000,000: 1 Billion dollars
                    1,000,000: 1 Million dollars
$200,000,000,000,000: Estimated total derivative exposure of all banks in the entire world. (20 x U.S. GDP)
$118,000,000,000,000: World Global Capital Markets (Stocks, Bonds, &?) Feb 2005 McKinsey Global Inst.
  $75,000,000,000,000: U.S. Govt. unfunded liabilities; social security, etc.
  $46,000,000,000,000: Est. World Money supply 2004; from M2 & GDP of EU, USA, Japan, & China (see SSR #56)
  $45,153,000,000,000: U.S. Household wealth, as of first quarter, 2004. (Includes Real Estate, and investments)
  $49,000,000,000,000: World bond market, Fall 2004 PWL Capital Inc.
  $37,000,000,000,000: Total global equity market capitalization June 2001 UN.ORG
  $21,000,000,000,000: U.S. bond market, Sept, '03: IAPF  treas.gov
  $11,447,800,000,000: U.S. GDP, 2004 q1 http://www.bea.doc.gov/bea/dn/home/gdp.htm
  $17,600,000,000,000: Total global market capitalization of NYSE stocks, Sept. '04  http://nyse.com
    $9,500,000,000,000: M3 (money in U.S. banks) Jan '05  http://tinyurl.com/vra0
    $7,700,000,000,000: US debt, 2-23-2005   http://www.publicdebt.treas.gov/opd/opdpenny.htm
    $2,360,000,000,000: U.S. annual budget 2005 http://tinyurl.com/3xbd2
    $1,860,000,000,000: World "official" gold mined in all of history, 145,000 T (4.6 bil oz.) @ $400/oz. http://tinyurl.com/vrcc
       $400,000,000,000: Estimated silver mined in all of history: 40 billion oz?  @ $10/oz.  http://snipurl.com/93j1
       $738,000,000,000: Total U.S. paper currency & coin in circulation, Sept. '04  http://www.fms.treas.gov/bulletin/index.html
       $700,000,000,000: Annual U.S. current account deficit (trade deficit) for 2004.
       $596,000,000,000: U.S. budget deficit (Fiscal year '03-'04).  http://www.publicdebt.treas.gov/opd/opdpenny.htm
       $380,000,000,000: Market Cap of General Electric (biggest U.S. company) http://tinyurl.com/vrcn
       $301,000,000,000: Debt of General Motors (biggest U.S. car company) Feb 2005
       $109,600,000,000: US gold, 261 mil oz., @ $420/oz. http://tinyurl.com/vsr9
       $100,000,000,000: all the world's gold stocks/equities (estimated?)
         $75,000,000,000: Money flowed into Equity funds in the first quarter, 2004
         $65,000,000,000: Increase in the U.S. debt in 23 days in Feb., 2005
         $19,000,000,000: Market Cap of Newmont Feb '05 (biggest gold company in the world)
         $11,000,000,000: Increase in the debt of GM from Jan to Feb, 2005!
           $8,226,000,000: all the world's "primary" silver stocks (80 of them on this list, as of June 25, 2004) --my own data.
           $6,710,000,000: 671 mil oz. of "identifiable" silver bullion left in the entire world, according to GFMS @ $10/oz.
              $288,000,000: 40 mil oz. of "registered" COMEX silver bullion (1-05-05) @ $7.5/oz.  http://tinyurl.com/vrcw
                $56,250,000:  Limit 7.5 mil oz. of silver @ $7.5/oz. (position limit of 1500 contracts per trader) at COMEX / NYMEX
                $11,250,000:  Limit 1.5 mil oz. of silver @ $7.5/oz. potential 1 month delivery limit at COMEX / NYMEX
                     $100,000:  Limit of FDIC insurance per bank account.
                         $5,000:  Limit of average cash withdrawl from small town banks, without ordering cash in advance.
                            $300:  Limit of average ATM daily withdrawl limit

So, what do all those stastistics mean?  (Besides the fact that real silver, and even paper money, is strictly limited?)

The numbers above are the real fundamentals of the silver and gold markets.  Silver and gold are money.  To study the potential demand for real money, we need to know how much paper money exists that could, one day, show up as demand for real money. 

Note that the U.S. government is now adding to the national debt, each month, about $70 billion, which is growing close to the entire value of the U.S. official gold hoard of about $109 billion.  This is extremely profitable for the creators of paper money, but also unsustainable. 

Note how General Motors has borrowed $301 billion, which is several times more than the value of the U.S. official gold hoard at $109 billion.  How did General Motors borrow more value in paper money than the entire U.S. has in real money?  Note how GM borrowed more money in early 2005 in one month, $11 billion, than the entire market capitalization of the entire silver stock market.

Note how the annual budget of the U.S. government, at $2.3 trillion, is greater than the value of all the gold ever mined in the history of the world, at $1.8 trillion.

Note how the value of the world bond market, at $49 trillion, far exceeds the value of the gold in the world, at just under $2 trillion.  Bonds are an investment type that directly competes with gold, and rather poorly in the last few years.  Bonds pay 1-5% these days, while gold has gone up from $250/oz. to $450/oz., a gain of 80% since 2001.

Note how extremely tiny is the silver market, relative to the tiny gold market, relative to the money and bond markets.

Now, a popular myth is that there is not enough gold and silver to do the work of money.  However, that is not true.  If gold and silver are valuable enough, there is always enough gold and silver to act as money. 

So, how valuable do you think gold and silver will get, when people start to sell overvalued stocks and bonds for real money, gold and silver, which are the only real alternatives to protect themselves from bankruptcies of companies like GM,  from bankruptcies of big banks, and from the continued inflation?

See, the value of bonds will go down, as interest rates must rise.  Interest rates must rise to match the capital gains that exist in the gold market--to get people back into bonds.  But gold is rising, what, 40% per year?  Imagine 50% interest rates in the bond market to draw people back to bonds!  GM will soon not be able to refinance their $300 billion in debt.  Imagine the capital destruction in the values of the bond market as interest rates rise, and as bond values move inverse to that from all the selling in the bond market.

The $49 trillion in the bond market MUST flow into the gold and silver markets as this process of debt destruction continues.

For a while I was using M3 and dividing that by the US gold (261 million ounces), which implies the us dollar is 84 times more valuable than it should be, and that gold should hit $34,000/oz. after the fraud is destroyed.  Today, I realize I need to add in the Bond market, because bonds are an asset class designed to siphon away and replace real money, which is to say, gold.  This gives a price of about $111,111/oz. for gold.  At $ 430/oz, this implies that US bonds and paper currency are 258 times more overvalued than gold.

Gold is overvalued relative to silver, because at current prices, it takes about 60 ounces of silver to buy 1 ounce of gold.  Historically, this ratio was 15 or 16.  Given the silver shortage, this ratio will hit 10:1 or 5:1, or even 1:1.  Thus, gold is perhaps 60 times more overvalued than silver.

Silver is overvalued relative to certain select silver stocks, perhaps by a factor of 3 or 10 or 20 to one.

Thus, if you multiply all those numbers, 258 x 60 x 10,  You will see that bonds and currency are overvalued relative to select silver stocks by a factor of 154,800 to one. In other words, if silver stocks reach their true value, and paper currency disappears as it always does, then you might expect certain silver stocks to go up in relative value by a factor of 154,800 times more than they are worth today.  By that time, you should definitely sell the silver stocks, and buy gold.

Can silver stocks really appreciate so much? Is there historical evidence for such a crazy thing?  Yes.

See http://www.sterlingmining.com/old.html
Excerpt:
"CDE rose from penny stock status (.02 in 1967) to an NYSE-listed, $60 per share stock in 1980. In fact, the average share on the Spokane Stock Exchange rose in value nearly 16000% (yes, sixteen THOUSAND percent), as America could not get enough of silver and silver stocks."

CDE rose by a factor of 3000, or 300,000%, and by 1980, the metals boom was stopped short, and paper money's death was postponed.  If paper money dies a death that lasts a generation world-wide, then even greater gains should have been expected.

For this reason, a wise silver stock investor should NEVER sell silver stocks for paper cash.  A wise silver stock investor who looks for value would never sell a fairly valued silver stock for an overvalued silver stock that traded for hundreds of thousands of times more value than it should be.  Likewise, there is no excuse for a silver stock investor to have any cash or money market or bonds in his portfolio for any reasonable length of time, except for when selling one silver stock to raise the cash for another silver stock, or for when you need to raise the cash to buy silver, or a private placement in another silver stock. 

So, if you want some fairly liquid alternatives to cash, in case you don't know what other silver stocks to buy at the time, here they are:
1.  Buy silver.  You can hold silver in an IRA.
2.  Buy CEF.  Central Fund of Canada, ticker symbol CEF.  It's gold/silver bullion fund.  It has 50 oz. of silver for every 1 oz. of gold.  The fund is fairly liquid, you can buy it as easily as any other stock, and is a good cash substitute.  Unfortunately, given the current ratio, about 55% or more of the value is in gold.
3.  Buy a fairly large cap silver stock, with fairly large volume, that is stilll fairly cheap on the list.  Canadian Zinc, Sterling Mining, IMA Resources, and perhaps Mines Management and Cardero are probably the best five candidates.  These all have market caps ranging close to $50-$100 million dollars or more, and are more liquid than many others.  (I used to recommend PAAS and SSRI for this kind of "liquid alternative", but they are no longer as cheap, and the others have now increased in liquidity, and are now much more suitable for this kind of trading.)

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The sheer stupidity of big money not recognizing the value of the world's remaining silver is utterly shocking to the rational mind.  Clearly, bond holders are utterly deceived, and totally unaware of the situation.  All my readers should understand and know that bonds were originally invented to suck the capital and money (gold and silver) away from the people.  Bonds today are a paper promise to repay paper.  What a con game!  Are bond holders conservative and safe?  No, they are fools!  There is nothing safe about holding a paper promise to receive more paper when we have been experiencing hyperinflation for the past two and a half years! 

See my prior essay, " Inflation & Deflation During Hyperinflation "

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And the fund investors who buy paper silver futures contracts instead of real silver are a very odd bunch of fools, for they should realize that nobody can deliver 800+ million ounces of silver promised in the paper contracts and options that does not exist.  It's like the paper longs are betting on the bank run happening, but they all are making sure they get at the end of the long line.  Instead, they could go front and center, where there is an open window available where you can go and get physical silver, and nobody is there.  Idiots!  If you know a bank run is going to happen, and you are actually willing to bet on it, then go and withdraw your money before it is too late!  Don't bet on it happening, which, if it does happen, your contracts will be defaulted on!  Amazingly blind idiots.  Wake up!

See also my prior essay, "The Moral Failures of the Paper Longs"

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How bullish am I on silver?  Here's an interesting way to put it: "60 times infinity" dollars per ounce.

I believe the dollar will eventually be destroyed, likely within my lifetime, hence the "infinity" part.  I believe the ratio of silver to gold may be equal during a spike, when the market realizes that above-ground refined silver is more rare than gold.  Thus, silver may outperform gold by a factor of 60 times better.  Currently, the ratio is 60 ounces of silver can buy one ounce of gold or 60:1.

I may end up selling silver for gold, some at the 10:1 silver to gold ratio, some more at 5:1, and I would sell any silver remaining at a 1:1 ratio, that we may hit during a supply/demand crunch during a paper money collapse.

How we can tell if silver is leading gold, or if gold is leading silver?  IE, which is going up more, faster than the other?  The way you can tell is by looking at the ratio.  If the silver:gold ratio is going up (say, from 60:1 to 80:1), then gold is moving up faster (because it takes 5 more silver oz. to buy an oz. of gold.  If the ratio is going down (from 60:1 to 40:1), then silver is moving up faster.  So, keep an eye on the ratio.
 
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For a list of bullion dealers:
http://www.silverstockreport.com/buybullion.htm

For a list of Brokers that handle Canadian issues and/or pink sheets:
http://www.bibleprophesy.org/SilverStockExtra.html

To track the 163 ticker symbols of the 100+ stocks on this list at yahoo:  (Updated on April 2)
http://www.bibleprophesy.org/SilverStockExtra.html

To learn All about Canadian law, 43-101, about reserves and resources:
http://www.bcsc.bc.ca/Publications/mineral_projects_sept03.pdf

A good web site that hosts posting boards for many of the smaller canadian stocks (that Yahoo! finance does not have boards for) is stockhouse.com
Click on "Bullboards".
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This is a list of primary silver stocks. 

I count a company's ounces of gold as 10 oz of silver. Why? Because I have a very strong positive bias in favor of silver over gold.

Given my bias in favor of much, much higher silver prices, then, to me, the grades of silver are far less important than buying more oz. in the ground.  More oz. in the ground at a lower cost is the most important consideration for me. 

My method is simple. Cost per ounce in the ground. How much do you get (silver reserve totals), and how much does it cost (market cap)? The cost is the market cap divided by the silver reserve totals. Cheaper is better. Buy low, sell high.

Disclaimers, Warnings, and Advice: I have gathered the information below over the course of several months. I believe it is accurate to the best of my ability. I have made mistakes in the data from time to time. I'm human. I have collected the information from public sources such as company web sites and public information found at yahoo.com to get the stock prices. This report in no way guarantees the accuracy of the information below, since the information may change at any time. The number of outstanding shares can change as a company engages in new share issues to raise more capital through private placements, or if outstanding warrants (and options) are exercised and converted into shares, or if shares are bought back. Shares can be consolidated, or split. The number of ounces of silver in the ground can also change, as these are often only estimates. The number can also change up or down, depending on drilling results.

This report is not investment advice.  This report contains information that may or may not be up to date, and may be inaccurate.  I urge you to contact the company and do your own research to verify the information contained in this report.

This report is not an offer to buy or sell any securities.  I am not a broker.  Only your broker can buy or sell securities for you.

I urge you to consult with your investment advisor to determine whether these kinds of investments are right for you. 

I also caution you to be aware of your investment advisor's advice, they are sometimes paid to push things like mutual funds, bonds and other securities that may not be in your best interest to buy.  Some investment houses are short physical metal, and thus, they may attempt to strongly discourage you from buying precious metal or precious metals investments.  I believe that the propaganda machine in support of frauds such as bonds and the dollar is so strong, that they may even believe what they say when they give bad advice to avoid the safety and protection of precious metals.  It is most likely that they simply do not understand the precious metals market as well as you do.

All total estimates of "ounces in the ground" can vary widely. There are "proven and probable reserves" which are the highest category of certainty which is obtained through many drill holes, and then at the least accurate, there are "inferred resources" which are hardest to estimate. Additionally, every miner always has "more silver properties that need to be explored, which probably contain more silver". For the purposes of this report, I have added all those numbers together. It is believed that all these "ounce in the ground" estimates can be profitably mined at $5-6 per ounce silver, or lower. Thus, I believe that when silver trades for $15/oz. or above, that all of these ounces can be mined at a substantial profit.

I may be wrong. (I probably make mistakes in every article, and there have been updates and corrections made each week, especially as prices change.)

Mining is a risky business. You need to be willing to sustain a total loss of your investment for various unforeseen accidents. Silver stock companies can do stupid things to shareholders such as take on debt, or issue more stock at too low prices which reduces the percentage of the company you may own (dilution). Yet, they need to issue shares to raise capital for drilling, and then an even bigger dilution to build a working mine. They may sell YOUR silver too cheaply, or worse, hedge the price of YOUR silver just as it begins to go up if they lock in a price which t